What happened? Rheinmetall (RHM) is scheduled to report Q4 2024 earnings on 12 March 2025. While we have briefly spoken to the company, our interaction served to discuss the latest developments since the Q3 release on 7 November and to recap on mgmt. statements that have been made since. The comment below should be read as our interpretation of the discussion rather than specific company commentary. Guidance is unchanged. BNPP Exane View: Demand: With Q3 reporting, the FY24 target for the so-called RHM Nomination was widened to EUR 30-40bn after the company had pointed to c. EUR 40bn with the Q2 release (up from EUR 28-36bn guided initially). However, the Q4 order announcements did not include any contribution from the TAWAN digitalization project, which RHM put at c. EUR 7.5bn in its Q3 slide deck, i.e. we consider it likely that delays in the parliamentary decision-making process - following the end of the former traffic light coalition - as earmarked by the CEO on the Q3 call actually are likely to have played out. In short, while BBG''s EUR 9.5bn order intake estimate might thus be too high, it is our impression that this is solely a timing effect, and we acknowledge that several sizable orders have been recorded in the meantime. Sales: In order to deliver on guided sales of c. EUR 10bn for the full-year, RHM needs to deliver Q4 revenue of c. EUR 3.7bn, ie up ~45% y/y, which is where VA has settled with a forecast of EUR 3.72bn (+46% y/y) vs. our EUR 3.65bn (+43% y/y). In addition to the seasonal profile calling for a material uptick in Q4, which historically has contributed c. 35% to full-year sales (and as much as c. 60% for adj. EBITA), we recall that the CEO had pointed to a ''very intense fourth quarter especially in the Weapon and Ammunition and Vehicle Systems'' segments. Adj. EBITA: Besides the comments in regard to the strong top-line acceleration, the CEO specifically pointed to the Q4 revenue target at WA of EUR 1.34bn, which is only...