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09 Aug 2024
A strong print on all lines

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A strong print on all lines
While sales and adj. EBITA had been pre-released on 24 July, we positively view the segment details as well as the level of received orders vis-a-vis the order backlog covering c. 5x expected FY24 revenue and strong OpFCF of EUR 170m. Commentary on the conference call moreover points to a strong pipeline across the defence business, and mgmt. equally reassured on execution in H2, for which the Q2 performance has probably been the best proof. Our model update prompts our new TP of EUR 585, and while the beat and raise story might not continue forever, RHM has its role to play in modernizing Europe''s defence sector, for which 17x/13x P/E 25/26 looks too low. O/P.
Key takes from the call - positive colour on orders, mid-term margins and FCF dynamics
1) Demand: the pipeline remains well filled both in Germany and abroad, spanning all 3 defence segments; 2) Profitability: as the renegotiated truck order for the German Army demonstrates, pricing remains very healthy, which is supported by RHM''s often dominant position and fixed terms for both volume and price in its ammunition business through 2026; 3) Optionality: its healthy balance sheet and strong FCF generation allow for both complementary MandA deals and cash return to holders.
Model update - MSD uplift to adj. EBITA and OpFCF 25-27e led by WA and ES
Following the inclusion of the segmental details for Q2 and the related comments by management on the call, we have fine-tuned our model assumptions prompting a c. 4% uplift of our adj. EBITA and OpFCF 25-27e. The actual execution momentum and aforementioned opportunity related to MandA might represent further upside. We find it too early to bake this in, but we remind investors that the CEO has previously stated to be aiming at sales of c. EUR 20bn by early 2030.
New TP is EUR 585 (from EUR 540) - O/P on strong visibility and still-attractive valuation
Our SOTP-based TP moves to EUR 585 based on an unchanged target EV/EBIT multiple of 10x for Power...