What happened? Rheinmetall (RHM) is scheduled to report Q2 2025 earnings on 7 August 2025. Today''s group pre-close call with HIR served to discuss the latest statements made since the Q1 release on 8 May. Net net, HIR conveyed a balanced message with earlier articulated headwinds (Q1 pull-forward, Murcia plant incident, order pipeline skewed to H2) suggesting a soft Q2 for all relevant KPIs, which is, however, offset by the confirmation of all FY25 guidance parameters. We also expect a meaningful upgrade of 2027/30 targets at the CMD (18 Nov.), reflecting faster defence spending in Europe, led by Germany as per the disclosed 2025-29 federal budget plans. The comment below should be read as our interpretation of the discussion rather than specific company commentary. Guidance is unchanged. BNPP Exane View: Demand: With Q1 reporting, RHM had upgraded the target for so-called RHM Nomination to EUR 55bn vs. EUR 30-40bn before. However, order announcements in Q2 have been on the low side reflecting the government transition in Germany and subsequently decision-making taking more time than usual. In short, we think BBG''s actual EUR 4.6n order intake estimate is likely too high; however, HIR also stated that discussions with Germany suggest 1) a high conversion of frame contracts (EUR 23bn at Q1-end) and 2) a likely usage of the embedded 50% step-up option, while highlighting that momentum elsewhere in Europe is equally good, referencing Spain and Italy. As such, decisions for additional order intake are likely to start in September with the largest impact, however, expected in October/November. Execution: We understand that beyond the well flagged reversal of Q1 tailwinds (c. EUR 140m revenue pull-forward at Defence, pos. mix at WA), the incident at the Murcia plant has resulted in a c. EUR 200m revenue slippage, which is expected to be fully recovered in H2. As a result, we model Q2 sales of EUR 2.61bn (+17% y/y | H1: +44% y/y) for adj. EBITA of EUR...