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  • 11 Nov 2022

Same procedure as every year


Rheinmetall AG (RHM:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Growe Sebastian SGR | Schachel Ingo IS

    • 15 pages


 

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Rheinmetall AG (RHM:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 11 Nov 2022
  • Author: Growe Sebastian SGR | Schachel Ingo IS
  • Pages: 15
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Q322 was a rather light quarter in almost every aspect, yet FY22 guidance was reiterated Defence orders at EUR 0.7bn were below expectations for a b:b of 0.8x (LTM: 1.0x) and driven by weakness in VS and WA, while ES was strong (e.g. combat helmets for German Army). Adj. EBIT of EUR 117m was 4% short of consensus on a lower print in the Civil Business - SA suffered from a lack of pass-through clauses - while adj. EBIT at Defence was in line. FCF was negative again at EUR (47)m (9M: EUR (0.7)bn) due to EUR 139m NWC build-up in anticipation of a strong Q4. While order targets for 2023/24 were retracted, sales/adj. EBIT guidance for FY22 was reiterated, i.e. organic growth of ~15% (9M: ~3%) for implied 30% growth in Q4, an adj. EBIT margin of 11% (LTM Q3: 10.4%) and the FCF target of 3-5% of sales implying a EUR 0.9bn cash inflow in Q4. An overall comforting message on the conference call alleviating prior concerns The conference call revealed that 1) the order pipeline remains well filled both at home and abroad with the former expected to start unfolding in Q4 as implied in a EUR 3bn indication for orders in the quarter, while the CFO''s tone on the Australian Land 400 tender was surprisingly positive, whereas the market seems to have given up on the order; 2) commentary on mix behind the envisaged EUR 0.6bn y/y sales uplift at Defence suggests an almost 40% contribution by WA in Q4 supporting FY22 guidance; 3) FCF in Q4 should benefit from the seasonal EBIT uplift, a EUR 0.4bn inventory decline and prepayments on new orders; 4) 2023 trajectory might suggests further improvements, especially at WA and SA. Minor model adjustments following Q3 release, EBIT 23/24e is marginally below consensus We make only minor changes mainly reflecting a slightly more prudent stance on sales growth in the Defence operations in FY23e driving a 3% cut to our prior EBIT forecast, but barely any changes in outer years. Our new EBIT 2023/24e is marginally...

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