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05 Feb 2021
Strong margin outlook should trigger first round of re-rating
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Strong margin outlook should trigger first round of re-rating
Solid message on margins, sales growth in Automotive
Rheinmetall''s 2025 outlook may on first glance appear broadly in line with expectations (EUR8.5bn of sales and 10% EBIT margin). However, this comes post the Piston disposals, implying a c. EUR500-700m sales beat to consensus in Automotive, as the margin target is to be understood as a minimum threshold for each business. While several areas already exceed this target, notably in Defence, they are not expected to experience margin pressure going forward, hence group margin should stand above. With the group''s 2-year time frame to review the business and potentially dispose of those failing to reach this profitability target, we believe that by 2023, the group should already be at a 10% margin, implying a 100bps beat on consensus. While a 2021 outlook was lacking in this presentation, we expect this to come with FY20 results on 18 March.
Cash returns for now are only in the form of dividends
Given the group''s de-levered situation, the benefit of further cash proceeds thanks to the planned Piston disposal (assumed at EUR200m in our model) and solid FCF generation (3-5% of sales targeted), cash returns would provide a significant boost to the equity story. At this stage, management rules out share buybacks, but is considering revising its payout policy to c. 40% (vs. the current 30-35% range). We also expect confirmation of this new policy with FY20 results. MandA could also be an attractive cash use but as noted in the call, finding the right target remains a challenge.
EPS estimates raised by c. 6% for 2021 onwards, TP raised to EUR130 from EUR120
We have adjusted our estimates to reflect FY20 preliminary results, resulting in a 3% adj. EPS increase, stronger sales and margin recovery in Automotive along with the Piston disposal (reported in the HQ line in 2021 and sold in 2022). Our EPS rises 6% in subsequent years. Our TP is raised to EUR130, reflecting these higher earnings along with...