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13 Feb 2024
Upgrade of mid-term targets

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Upgrade of mid-term targets
We draw 3 conclusions from the latest CEO interview and the inauguration ceremony for RHM''s new artillery plant: 1) 2026 sales should increase towards c. EUR 15bn, which implies ~25% upside risk to Street''s EBIT 26e in wake of a more favourable mix; 2) RHM sees itself as an active consolidator with critical scale requiring future sales of EUR 20-30bn - the lower bound the goal for early 30s - to be relevant also versus U.S. defence peers; 3) mid-term capacities largely available, long-term supported by healthy FCFs thanks to mix and prepayments. If RHM were to deliver on those goals, EPS 26e of c. EUR 40 were in reach for 9x P/E, even after yesterday''s 4% move. O/P.
Interview ties into today''s groundbreaking ceremony for new artillery plant
CEO Papperger gave an interview to German daily Handesblatt, i.e. ahead of the groundbreaking ceremony - including German Chancellor Scholz, thus underlining RHM''s strategic relevance - for a new artillery production plant at its Weapon and Ammunition core hub in UnterluB. In the press release, RHM is pointing to an output of c. 50k/100k rounds in 2025/26e that should rise to 200k in the mid-term bringing its total artillery capacity to c. 700k. This compares to a combined capacity of 350k rounds as disclosed when acquiring Expal in 11/2022 (RHM: 100k / Expal: 250k).
Mid-term sales target upgraded towards EUR 15bn from EUR 13-14bn, ammo the key driver
While RHM had raised financial targets at the CMD in 11/2023, the CEO now stated to target to expand sales towards EUR 15bn by FY26. Assuming that this is primarily driven by the high margin ammunition business as suggested by the timing of the new (verbal) goal, we calculate potential EBIT of c. EUR 2.3-2.7bn, i.e. up ~20% vs. the latest range and c. 25% vs. VA consensus.
Attractiveness of investment case underlined by implied P/E 26e of ~9x
Also, after a 3-fold increase in the price since 04/2022 (YTD: +22%), the shares continue to screen attractive, both vs...