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09 May 2025
1Q first read: decent beat, outlook maintained

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1Q first read: decent beat, outlook maintained
What happened?
Commerzbank has reported 1Q numbers nicely ahead of consensus estimates. The FY25 outlook is unchanged on the PandL, slightly higher on capital. They say they are making good progress with restructuring.
BNPP Exane View:
Reported net profit EUR 834m is 20% ahead of consensus 698m, +12% YoY.
Adjusted underlying PBT 1437m is 12% ahead of consensus 1284m, +5% YoY.
... Driven by revenues 5% ahead (+8% YoY), costs 3% heavier (+9% YoY), LLPs lighter.
... Cost/income is 52% underlying, unchanged YoY.
Both business divisions are contributing to the beat (retail banking 6% ahead of cons, corporate banking 4% ahead).
RoTE in the quarter is 11.1% (as-reported company basis) / 12.5% (our underlying calculation).
TBVPS is up 4% QoQ to EUR 25.48, shares at 24.30 are 0.95x.
CET1 ratio is unchanged QoQ at 15.1%, above consensus 14.9%, despite accruing 100% of profits for payout.
The PandL outlook for FY25 is unchanged (7.8bn NII, 57% cost/income, 850m LLPs, 2.4bn net profit).
The CET1 outlook is slightly higher (14.5% vs previous 14%), with unchanged payout plans (100% of profits pre-restructuring / 100% reported).
On restructuring efforts, they say they are making good progress in negotiations with workers council, EUR 40m for early partial retirement programme already booked, framework agreement to be concluded in Q2, employee share programme to be formally agreed in May.
The conference call is 9.00 CET.