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16 Jul 2021
Adjusting expectations ahead of 2Q reporting

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Adjusting expectations ahead of 2Q reporting
We expect a reasonable operating profit, but a loss after restructuring charges
We expect stable net interest income (ex TLTRO), and decent fee and commission income (below 1Q but above last year). However trading revenues are likely to be lower, and other income is likely to be materially negative including charges following the German court ruling on account fees. Operating costs should be slightly lower year-on-year, and bank levies too (with the Greensill deposit guarantee top-ups booked as payment commitments instead). Loan loss provisions should be small, with limited defaults in Germany so far. The company has guided for EUR 550m restructuring charges this quarter, which results in an overall net loss in our estimates.
We expect the CET1 ratio to reduce slightly from 13.4% to 13.3%, still healthy
We expect RWAs to be roughly stable sequentially, but capital to reduce slightly with the PandL losses, reducing the CET1 ratio a little from 13.4% to 13.3%, but leaving it still well above the 12.5% target and the 9.6% regulatory minimum.
Restructuring progress remains an obvious focus
We are only a few months on from the CEO''s start at the bank (1 January), and the new strategic plan presentation (11 February), but with restructuring efforts well underway now investors will be looking for any update on cost delivery and revenue resilience.
Polish mortgage rulings still seem to be some way off
We do not expect any significant update on mBank''s CHF mortgage portfolio at this stage, legal rulings seem to be delayed until September.
We adjust 2021 estimates, with no change to 2022-23 or to our Neutral rating
We update our financial forecasts, with slightly larger 2021 losses, but make no change at this stage to our 2022-23 estimates, our target price, or our Neutral rating on the shares.