Policy rates are moving again, up in the Eurozone and down in Poland Central bankers remain active. In Poland, policy rates were cut last week by 75bp down to 6%, in a surprise move that may have political influences ahead of elections. In the Eurozone, somewhat less surprisingly, the ECB this week hiked another 25bp, up to 4%. Commerzbank''s NII has different drivers, and seems to be poorly understood The market has been surprised in recent quarters by step-ups in Commerzbank''s NII and changes in guidance. We analyse here the main moving parts, and use a simplified model to gain visibility on likely NII levels in 2024 and beyond under different interest rate scenarios. NII should settle at higher levels even with lower mid-cycle policy rates Rising deposit beta may cause a dip in NII in 2H23/2024. But the repricing of the replication portfolio should bring a bigger positive impact, taking NII to higher levels in 2025-27. Even with lower through-the-cycle interest rate assumptions (ECB 2.5%) we see Commerzbank''s NII around EUR 8.7bn, versus 2Q23 reported 8.5bn / underlying 7.7bn, and versus 2025 consensus 7.9bn. We raise estimates for 2025 onwards We incorporate these NII findings into our financial forecasts, with no impact in 2023-24 but driving upgrades to 2025 and beyond. That benefit may seem distant right now, but fairly soon the deposit beta will have played out and we should be looking at strong growth from there. We maintain our positive view We reiterate our Outperform rating on the stock, one of our top picks in the sector. We see positive surprises on NII, credit quality and capital returns, and expect the valuation discount to reduce.