We expect robust PandL trends in 4Q Operating trends look healthy for Commerzbank in 4Q. Net interest income seems likely to remain around EUR 2bn, with pricing discipline holding well. Net commission income should also be robust, with management efforts and recent investments. Costs are likely to be somewhat higher, with seasonal and revenue-related increments. Loan loss provisions should be steady. Capital ratios are likely to increase, adding more surplus The bank has accrued no retained earnings in 1Q-3Q, so with the planned 70% FY24 payout ratio should be adding the remaining 30% of earnings at the full-year stage. In our estimates, with limited RWA growth, this gives a CET1 increase from 14.8% to 15.2% (vs 13.5% target). All eyes on the strategy update There will be a lot of focus on the Capital Markets Day in the afternoon of the results date, with updates to the business plan and financial targets, effectively representing the bid defence against UniCredit''s takeover attempts. We discussed some of this in our recent Top Picks note. No real news on UniCredit bid interest UniCredit reportedly now has options on up to 28% of Commerzbank''s shares, but its next steps are on hold, pending German elections and the pursuit of its domestic MandA project. We keep our Outperform rating, one of our sector top picks We reiterate our positive view on Commerzbank shares and our EUR20 TP. This is based primarily on standalone fundamentals, with resilient NII and large share buybacks, and a discounted valuation. MandA scenarios may give support but are not our main focus at this stage. We make minor changes to our estimates ahead of Q4 results.