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20 Jan 2023
Raising estimates before 4Q reporting

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Raising estimates before 4Q reporting
We expect further improvement in NII and revenue levels
Higher rates should boost net interest income further in 4Q and into the future, above consensus and company targets. Fees and commissions are likely to be seasonally softer in 4Q, but remain healthy. Other income will be impacted by extra CHF mortgage provisions in Poland.
Costs may be a little higher seasonally, but remain well managed
We allow for the usual 4Q cost top-ups. However all the indications are that costs remain well under control, including wage settlements and other inflationary pressures (which we have already made some allowance for in our estimates).
We expect more precautionary provisions in 4Q
The company guidance has been for EUR 700m loan loss provisions in 2022 (a normalised 25bp of loans) including drawdown of the top-level adjustment buffer. We continue to expect a more conservative approach, maintaining/building buffers, with a 1.2bn provision charge for the year.
Capital ratios should be improving, dividends and buybacks starting
From 13.9% in 3Q we expect further improvement in CET1 ratios in 4Q, thanks to strong PandL results and seasonal asset reductions. We estimate EUR 1.2bn attributable profit for the year, and expect the company to pay out 30% as planned, being 20c DPS and c100m share buybacks.
We reiterate our Outperform rating, one of our top picks
These trends continue our very positive view on Commerzbank, with substantial NII improvement continuing to flow through, and credit quality remaining benign. We reiterate our Outperform rating, and the stock''s position as one of our team''s top picks across the sector.