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04 Nov 2020
3Q20 results and questions for management

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3Q20 results and questions for management
Polymer margins drive Q3 EBITDA beat
Wacker reported a robust 9% EBITDA beat driven predominately by outperformance in its Polymers business on volumes but especially margins (c400bps above cons) thanks to very high incremental margins. We suspect some normalisation in margins is inevitable during Q4 and in 2021, but this will likely be gradual as we see further demand recovery and there is no sharp inflation in sight. All in, we upgrade our group EBITDA by c4% primarily on the back of Polymers strength (see Figure 1 inside), and also raise our medium term forecasts to push our PT to EUR80.
Cash flows a strong positive
FCF also outperformed expectations with lower capex and working capital accounting for the majority of the cEUR129m y/y growth. Management unsparingly suggested that the market should not expect the same magnitude of cash generation during Q4, although a positive development is anticipated. Capex guidance remains at cEUR250m, although this will likely rise to EUR450m in the mid-term. The company''s dividend policy remains unchanged.
Polysilicon outlook positive, current trading in Silicones looking good
Management remained positive on the polysilicon market during 2021 in both solar and semiconductors. While it is not clear when the GCL-Poly capacity will come back online, management expects demand growth to help balance the market in the event of increased supply. Silicones saw a slightly delayed recovery compared to Polymers during Q3, although the current order book was said to be strong.
If we had to ask one question (more inside)
How sustainable is the recent strength in EBITDA margins given they are now at multi-year highs and assuming input costs remain stable at current levels near-term?