A mixed quarter ... Wacker reported Q3 EBITDA of EUR457m, 9% below consensus expectations (+2% y/y). The miss was broad based although Polysilicon drove most of the absolute underperformance. On the group level, volumes were down c2%, although Wacker was able to more than offset energy/raw material inflation with pricing. Free cash flows were strong at EUR293m (conversion of 64%). ...But a reassuring FY guide Management narrowed its full year guidance range to the upper end at EUR2.1-2.3bn vs 1.8-2.3bn previously. The old range assumed a headwind of EUR200-250m at the lower end to reflect potential gas curtailments - this has now been removed. On energy / raw mats, management now guides for an FY22 headwind of EUR1.3-1.4bn vs EUR1.5bn previously - this suggests a Q4 headwind of cEUR400m. At the new mid-point, Q4 EBITDA is implied at EUR473m, c30% ahead of consensus. The Q4 beat stems mainly from polysilicon due to a combination of lower energy costs and higher pricing. The outlook in Silicones / Polymers is softer, as expected. 2023 - risks are not insurmountable and relatively well understood The impact of new supply additions in the polysilicon market remains a key debate for investors. We factor a 38% decline in pricing during 2023 (vs spot) and believe concerns over a more material collapse to be overdone. There is understandable uncertainty around energy cost headwinds for next year, although we note Wacker is 2/3rds hedged and so far has exercised impressive pricing power across its portfolio. Estimate changes; Reiterate Outperform Our FY 22/23 EBITDA estimates do not change materially. However, our price target falls to EUR175 (previously EUR185) after discounting the 2023 multiples used in our SOTP based valuation to reflect the current interest rate and macro environment. We retain an Outperform rating on the shares.