Q3 EBITDA miss driven by polymers and polysilicon Wacker reported Q3 24'' EBITDA of EUR152m, 6% below consensus, driven mostly by polymers and polysilicon. In polysilicon, performance was burdened by solar grade volumes driven by uncertainty created from the US AD/CVD investigations into southeast Asian solar players. Arguably, the bigger surprise came in polymers where EBITDA declined 23% sequentially having previously guided for a flat development. The driver was one off in nature with Wacker having faced a supplier force majeure in Ethylene. Cash flows were negative as expected due to higher capex and inventory investment. Silicones a bright spot Despite the group miss, Wacker''s Silicones business (c50% of group FY24e EBITDA) beat consensus expectations by 17%. Part of this will have been foreshadowed by the strong prints at Dow (NC) and Elkem (NC) last week, though Wacker''s continued recovery in Silicone Specialties is pleasing nonetheless. Assuming stable operating rates, we think the Q3 result in Silicones can go some way to providing support for FY25 consensus at the group level. Polysilicon uncertainty continues Wacker''s polysilicon business continues to be shrouded in uncertainty owing to a) the ongoing anti-dumping investigation (with clarity on CVDs having come in Oct) and b) the impact of the outcome of the US presidential race on the solar industry / IRA. Ultimately, at the current share price we do not think the market is factoring in any significant value for Wacker''s polysilicon business, which gives us some confidence that further downside on the shares is unlikely. Estimate changes We lower our FY24 EBITDA estimates by 3% (mostly on polysilicon) though leave our FY25 forecasts broadly unchanged. Our price target falls to EUR115 (previously EUR120), due to higher FY24 net debt.