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28 Oct 2021
Q3 FCF strong, FY guidance unchanged

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Q3 FCF strong, FY guidance unchanged
Q3 EBITDA ahead of expectations, cash generation strong again
Wacker Chemie reported Q3 EBITDA of EUR433.7m, c.12% ahead of consensus. The company had pre released in mid-September placing EBITDA at ''roughly'' EUR400m at the time. The beat was driven predominantly by Silicones and Polymers while Polysilicon was in line. Wacker also recorded an impressive quarter for cash generation. FCF came in at EUR426m implying a near 100% conversion from EBITDA, and helping to further cement Wacker''s net cash position.
FY21 guidance remains unchanged
Despite the beat on Q3, management left full year EBITDA guidance unchanged at EUR1.2-1.4bn, with current consensus sitting at EUR1.34bn. The new guide implies a weaker Q4 (EUR353m) vs consensus (EUR399m). Wacker guided for higher raw material headwinds at EUR400m (vs EUR300m) previously, which appears to have held management back from pointing towards the upper end of the range.
FY21 guidance appears conservative, FY22 continues to shape up well
While Wacker maintained its outlook, we still sit towards the upper end of the range and upgrade our FY21 EBITDA by c3%. We factor in sequential normalisation in Silicones and model in a Q4 Polysilicon EBITDA on par with Q3. With polysilicon prices finishing the year strongly, this bodes well for 1Q22 with Wacker typically realising prices on a 2-month lag. Furthermore, Wacker continues to increase prices in Silicones to offset silicon metal price inflation. Our FY22 estimates remain relatively unchanged.
March 2022 CMD the next big catalyst
In the run up to results, Wacker also confirmed a CMD in March 2022 where the company will lay out its new strategy. In our view, this will be crucial to deciphering management''s plans to grow its biopharma business which is a potential catalyst for midterm multiple expansion. We maintain our Outperform rating at a price target of EUR178.