Q4 installations will determine 2023's ending note

Nordex’s 9M results were broadly in line with expectations on all fronts. Order intake (turbine) rose in terms of both volume and value. The ASP was slightly up yoy, as was the order book. The EBITDA margin continued to improve qoq and yoy owing to higher installations with better pricing. Consequently CFO and FCF also did better this quarter. Lastly, Nordex reiterated its 2023 targets although where the figures actually come in will be contingent on various factors alongside the number of insta

EBITDA breakeven in Q2; 2023 outlook confirmed

Nordex delivered decent first half results with another quarter of revenue growth supported by higher installations. Order intake for turbines was down by volume but flat in value terms. The ASP was flat qoq but up yoy. The order book was flat yoy. The EBITDA margin returned to positive territory in Q2 but was negative for the first half. CFO and FCF were negative due to lower profits. With this result, the group confirmed its 2023 outlook.

Muted start to the year; 2023 outlook confirmed

Nordex’s Q1 revenue figures were slightly ahead of expectations but EBITDA was below. The former was supported by higher deliveries, whereas the latter was affected by higher costs. The order intake declined by volume but was slightly up in value. ASP was flat qoq but increased by c. 15% yoy. The order backlog was also up yoy. CFO and FCF were negative but Nordex has ample liquidity following its capital increase and convertible bond issuance. Lastly, the group confirmed its 2023 outlook.

Preliminary figures confirmed, 2023 outlook echoes that of its peers

Nordex confirmed its preliminary figures with revenues at the top end of the guidance and the EBITDA margin slightly below. Order intake was weak, ASPs continued to rise and the order backlog increased slightly. CFO and FCF were negative but Nordex has ample liquidity. Liquidity will also be helped by a planned shareholder loan conversion into equity. Capex was higher than the company’s guidance. Lastly, the 2023 outlook is a mixed bag with higher than expected revenues but a lower EBITDA margin

Decent 9M figures; EBITDA margin at the lower end; Q4 slippage possible

Nordex delivered decent Q3 and 9M figures given the broader supply-chain and input cost inflation across the industry. Order intake was slightly above expectations along with a good jump in the ASP. The order backlog also increased yoy. As expected, CFO and FCF were negative. The company confirmed its revenue guidance but moved its EBITDA margin target towards the lower end of the previous range. Given the high number of expected deliveries in Q4, there could be some slippage into 2023.

2022 guidance downgrade followed by a soft start

Having presented its updated guidance last month, Nordex got off to a soft start. Order intake was almost flat, whereas the order backlog provides decent revenue visibility over the next two years. Profitability was impacted by the ongoing industry-wide pressures as well as additional costs highlighted during the guidance cut. CFO and FCF were negative, and the working capital ratio stood at -11.3%. The company confirmed its guidance and this places an increased emphasis on the coming quarters,

(Slightly) better at weathering headwinds

Nordex confirmed its preliminary figures and delivered revenues above its guidance. On profitability, the result was in line with expectations. The group registered high levels of installation activity throughout FY21. However, costs were higher due to the ongoing raw material and supply-chain issues. Order intake and order backlog recorded an increase yoy and were particularly strong for Projects. For its FY21 outlook, the company’s targets were ahead of our expectations but the wide range high

Medium-term targets hit here as well

Nordex’s Q3 results were a mixed bag with revenues slightly above expectations and EBITDA below them. Order intake remained solid even though the order backlog remained flat. Revenues increased due to the high level of installations and the EBITDA margin was impacted by commodity and freight costs. Despite narrowing its revenue guidance, Nordex, like its peers, lowered its profitability guidance for the full year. Also, it sees its medium-term ambition of achieving EBITDA margins of 8% pushed to

Good performance overall, outlook unchanged

Nordex released a stronger than expected set of H1 results. Revenues and EBITDA were both above expectations. Order intake for the first half improved due to the higher activity in the second quarter even as the backlog remained still below the prior year’s level. Unlike other wind turbine manufacturers under our coverage, Nordex maintained its FY21 guidance. The company also completed a capital increase via subscription rights in July 2021.

Nothing amiss at the start

Nordex’s Q1 figures were a mixed bag with revenues better than expected but EBITDA was below expectations. Orders, too, declined but met expectations given a sluggish start within the Onshore space in 2021. With this release, the company also confirmed its FY21 and FY22 ambitions put forward during the previous release. In essence, the activity levels within Onshore, so far, have been lower than expected and this is something we would watch out for with regards to other players too.

FY20 slightly above the mark

Nordex confirmed its preliminary figures released earlier this month. Sales were above the group’s guidance whereas, EBITDA was in line. Q4 recorded a high level of activity to close out the year. In FY20, the group invested in blade production facilities in India, Mexico and Brazil, the ramp-up of which will happen in the coming year, thus improving margins. The group also put forward its FY21 guidance but kept its FY22 outlook unchanged.

Good Q3 activity and a new FY20 guidance

Nordex confirmed its preliminary 9M 20 figures, which were released earlier this week. Total sales registered strong growth due to increased installation and production activity in its Projects segment. The company also sold its European project development business to RWE. Additionally, it has expanded its capacity to 6GW and put forward its FY20 and FY22 outlook, which were better than our expectations.

Hit on profitability and no 2020 outlook

Nordex reported a very strong topline in Q2 20, while profitability was significantly impacted by COVID-19. As guided by management in Q1, the order momentum showed signs of a slowdown, which raises some uncertainties as regards demand in the coming quarters. Unlike peers, Nordex has not provided any targets for 2020, which is clearly disappointing.

Good start into the year, but COVID-19 impacts not fully visible

Nordex reported solid Q1 figures. The impact of COVID-19 was relatively limited in the first quarter, which means remaining cautious as regards the performance of wind OEMs in Q2. While this year was expected to be a peak year in terms of installations, the Coronavirus outbreak increased the odds of execution risks. 2020 guidance remains suspended, but the refinancing of €1.2bn obtained by Nordex offers some security to investors.

A strong rebound is possible if the situation improves promptly

Today’s release confirmed the preliminary results of early March and included the 2020 guidance which points out that our current EBITDA estimate is too high, even more so since this guidance doesn’t include a full COVID-19 impact. Management indicated it is too early to assess the Coronavirus impact and therefore the 2020 targets are subject to modification. Although the activity expected for 2020 is strong due to a full backlog, we believe that uncertainties related to COVID-19 are limiting vi

Renold - Strong end to FY24: EPS up 11%. Robust FY25: EPS up 27.6%

The FY24 year-end update is very upbeat signalling trading being materially ahead of expectations, with a better-than-expected profit out turn and stronger cash generation. It continues to strengthen margins through efficiencies and investment in modern equipment. The order book remains close to record levels providing a robust view of future forecasts. In FY24E we upgrade EPS by 11% and in FY25E a significant upgrade of 27.6%. It looks capable of declaring a dividend in FY25 as well as manageme

Morning Note – 16 April 2024

Q1 Operating Results

Another Good Year of Diversified Growth with More to Come in 2024 CCapital have released their Q1 operating results. Overall, revenue has come in slightly lower than expected at $80.2m vs TamE of $85.9m but is largely tracking in line with our FY24 annual estimate and we note the company has maintained guidance. Drilling revenue for this quarter was impacted by a fall in utilisaztion rates as well as general remobilisation geographically but we expect a strong recovery throughout the year as k

Billington Holdings - Record result boosts dividend; forecasts upgraded

FY23 results show very strong growth over FY22, driven by strong Structural Steel activity, with results slightly ahead of upgraded profit expectations, while stronger than expected cash flow resulted in an unexpectedly generous dividend of 33p (offering a FY23 yield of 7.0%). The group now has net cash of £22.1m and is debt free and is therefore in a strong position for potential M&A activity. Following the recent £90m of new orders to increase the order book to record levels we conservatively

Plant Health Care - China distribution with AMVAC

Plant Health Care announced it has signed a distribution agreement with AMVAC, an American Vanguard Company, to support commercialisation of novel fertiliser products incorporating Plant Health Care's Harpinαβ in China starting in 2024. The novel product combines Harpinαβ technology with an AMVAC fertiliser and is expected to help growers improve crop quality and yield as part of an integrated and environmentally responsible crop production programme. AMVAC continues to evaluate Plant Health Car

Morning Note – 15 April 2024

discoverIE - Back to organic growth

discoverIE’s March year-end update confirms a strong operational performance in challenging markets. Following two years when sales increased by +48%, FY 2024 Group sales were +1% ahead of 2023 at CER (reported -3%) driven by a +2% contribution from acquisitions and organic -1%. As expected, organic growth returned in the later part of the year (Q4 +2%, +11% sequentially) and the order book has reverted to normalised levels of c.4.5 months’ sales, which – combined with a continuing strong pipeli

Severfield - Multiple positives should excite investors

Severfield’s trading update indicates that FY23 results are expected to slightly exceed market expectations and the company ends the year with a record UK and Europe order book. Furthermore, with a positive trading outlook and net debt coming in lower than expected, Severfield has announced a £10m share buyback, highlighting the cash-generative nature of the company and management’s confidence in its position. The stock trades on an FY25 P/E of less than 6x and yields 7%, which we believe appear

Warns on brine supply costs

SP Angel . Morning View . Copper prices hold higher as China processing fees fall below $0/t amid low feedstock availability

PROGRESSIVE: Severfield: Targeted acquisition strategy aids growth path

Acquisitions have been an important element of Severfield management’s growth strategy, with the aim of adding new products, sectors and regions to what we have identified as exciting long-term organic opportunities. In this Spotlight report, we focus on the group’s targeted M&A approach, highlighting three significant deals.

LIBERUM: Severfield: Erratum: Better EPS and cashflow, and buyback

Invinity Energy Systems - Update on Strategic Investment

Invinity’s update on discussions with strategic investors reveals interest from multiple parties. While this has slightly delayed finalising an agreement it increases the potential for a better outcome. Although details are unknown at this stage, we think there is enough in the statement to be comfortable that any agreements will be consistent with the company’s strategy of growing market share in core markets and using a licencing and royalty model in other markets.

PROGRESSIVE: Severfield: Step change in European and Indian outlook

Severfield’s full-year results to March will be ‘slightly above’ the Board’s expectations, according to today’s trading update, with net debt significantly better. We maintain our PBT estimates for both forecast years, which are ahead of consensus, but reduce our net debt for FY24E. Record orders were boosted by the steel specialist’s European operations, after last year’s Voortman acquisition, while the Indian JV has seen ‘another step up in profitability’. The group has also launched its first

Clean and competitive fertiliser