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We expect XXL to report Q4/20 EBIT of NOK 96m, 10% above latest Factset consensus of NOK 87m. The positive deviation is explained by an estimated gross margin of 39.0% vs. cons. 38.1%, as we expect profitability to benefit from limited discounting in the quarter. Despite warm weather and poor snow conditions we estimate like-for-like sales growth of 7.8%, driven by strong demand for sporting goods and outdoor equipment across the company's home markets.
Companies: XXL ASA
Arctic Securities
Q3/20 EBITDA of NOK 413m vs. Factset consensus of NOK 367m Solid Q3/20 gross margin of 40.5%, up from 37.3% in Q3/19 LFL sales growth of 16.1% Y/Y driven by 21.1% LFL growth in Norway We expect share price and estimates to move higher today
We expect XXL to report Q3/20 EBITDA of NOK 325m, 11% below latest Factset consensus of NOK 367m. The negative deviation is explained by a combination of lower sales growth and lower gross margins. We estimate Q3/20 sales of NOK 2.9bn, up 19% Y/Y driven by strong demand for sporting goods in all XXL's home markets. We expect gross margins to be slightly down Y/Y, explained by lower supplier bonuses and NOK weakening.
Strong Q1/20 sales driven by 25% Y/Y growth in e-commerce Massive clearance sales resulting in soft Q1/20 gross margin of 27.9% Negative Q1/20 EBITDA explained by increased overhead costs Norway and Sweden have started Q2/20 on a positive note
We expect Q1/20 results to be a non-event given the clearly communicated soft January with the subsequent clearance sale in February and March. As investor focus has turned from a disappointing winter season to the ongoing Covid-19 uncertainty, we expect an update on April 2020 sales to be key for short-term share price momentum. Following 7 quarters of negative LFL revenue growth (including Q1/20), we expect actual April sales to surprise on the upside.
Pål Wibe’s first day as new CEO of XXL was an eventful one, with the share price soaring 85% on the back of the balance sheet restructuring news. While the Nordic sporting goods market remains challenging, XXL has now secured 18 months to improve profitability without constantly worrying about its debt covenant. While we continue to see downside risk for consensus estimates for 2020, we expect improving results from 2021 onwards to drive the share price higher.
XXL announces new bank financing of NOK 1,450m XXL also announces underwritten rights issue of NOK 400m Rights issue guaranteed by Altor, Ferd and Odin Rights issue structures to Altor avoids mandatory offer obligation
Despite having significantly reduced net interest-bearing debt over the past 12 months, we expect the leverage ratio to breach the debt covenant of 4.0x in Q1/20. The ratio increase is explained by a drop in 12-month rolling EBITDA, which we expect will continue to decline through Q2/20 and Q3/20. While we continue to view XXL’s balance sheet issues as fixable, we reduce our target price from NOK 10 to 6 and downgrade our recommendation from Hold to Sell.
Bjørn Rune Gjelsten to become 50% owner of Gresvig Olav Nils Sunde will own 50% of Gresvig and Sport 1 34 out of 94 owned stores to close as part of restructuring Market consolidation positive for XXL in terms of price pressure
XXL’s main competitor Gresvig declares bankruptcy More equity needed to compete rebranding to Intersport Long-term impact on XXL likely to be positive Challenging 2019/2020 winter season to become worse
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on XXL ASA. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Re-issued to correct for typographical errors.Invinity’s major equity fundraising is targeting a minimum of £56m with £25m already committed by the UK Infrastructure Bank (UKIB). A second strategic investment of £3m has been committed by Korean Investment Partners. The raise will see Invinity to net cash generation, with over £30m of the raise supporting the company’s scale up ahead of this year’s launch of the next generation Mistral flow battery. The raise will boost the balance sheet, reduci
Companies: Invinity Energy Systems PLC
Longspur Clean Energy
Invinity Energy Systems (IES LN) develops Vanadium Flow Batteries (VFBs) for utility-scale grid storage. The Group’s next-generation Mistral VFB technology, jointly developed with Gamesa Electric, launches in H2 2024 to provide grid-scale longer-duration energy storage (LDES) as renewable generation increases globally. To capture this opportunity, the Group has today announced that it has raised £56.0m through a placing at 23p per share. It is now undertaking an Open Offer to raise up to £6.6m a
VSA Capital
The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no
Companies: AEIT ROOF DGI9 INPP GSF SEIT USFP HICL ORIT BSIF TRIG NESF SEQI HEIT GRP GCP FSFL 3IN AERI PINT RNEW BBGI GSEO DORE TENT GRID CORD HGEN AEET
Hardman & Co
Companies: ALB CS ALB GLEN MP
SP Angel
Market sentiment turned more cautious in the month of April, particularly regarding interest rates, with economic data producing mixed results. Despite housing transactions and net mortgage approvals continuing an upward trend, with the latter at an 18-month high and +20.1% YoY and +1.4% MoM to 61.3k (seasonally adjusted), Nationwide’s House Price Index dropped 0.4% MoM (seasonally adjusted) in April, below the +0.2% expected. This comes as mortgage lenders nudge rates up to factor in the potent
Companies: TPT EPWN VANL NXR LIKE
Zeus Capital
XP Power closed FY23 with higher-than-expected revenue, benefiting from the delay to relocation of its California facility, which pulled shipments worth c £5m into Q423 and pushed c £12m capex into Q124. Q423 order intake was higher than we forecast, with upside from semiconductor equipment customers partially offset by weaker demand from healthcare and industrial customers. Timing issues and currency resulted in lower-than-expected gearing at end-FY23, although it is expected to rise in H124 be
Companies: XP Power Ltd.
Edison
Zonal pricing is now under consideration for implementation in the GB power market. While this is very much not a given, this note summarises the key reports on its potential impacts. We find that while there is an overall reduction in revenues across generation, this may be less than originally predicted and new regional price differences and timing differences may favour storage in Scotland and delay new gas plant construction nationally. We think this later second order impact improves the en
Companies: DRX NESF IES SAE
Companies: AVZ AAU ORR JAY CUSN SVML GMET PLL
Companies: eEnergy Group PLC
Canaccord Genuity
Companies: ARV CLA SLP GAL 002466 GGP JAY KOD GRL MKA SVML GEMD ZIOC
SDI has indicated that a slowdown in the life science / biotech market, and some resultant destocking, is likely to impact its expected FY24 revenue, leading the group to moderate current year guidance for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. SDI notes that FY24 represents a short-term phenomenon, due to the over-ordering of the past three years caused by inflated Covid demand. However, we remain confident for the long term, given the strength of SDI’s ‘buy and build’ business model, with a number
Companies: SDI Group plc
Progressive Equity Research
EQTEC’s latest trading update shows the company is continuing to find its footing following its strategic pivot and is now positioning itself for future growth using its capital light, technology licensing model. Revenue for FY23 is ahead of our forecast at €2.5m at a gross margin of 15%, however management have indicated that there may be an impairment of development assets on the balance sheet which will impact on bottom line earnings. The previously announced financing and restructuring is du
Companies: EQTEC PLC
Companies: FOG PEB KBT EMR TIME GETB JNEO
Cavendish
Plant Health Care announced it has signed a distribution agreement with AMVAC, an American Vanguard Company, to support commercialisation of novel fertiliser products incorporating Plant Health Care's Harpinαβ in China starting in 2024. The novel product combines Harpinαβ technology with an AMVAC fertiliser and is expected to help growers improve crop quality and yield as part of an integrated and environmentally responsible crop production programme. AMVAC continues to evaluate Plant Health Car
Companies: Plant Health Care PLC
Companies: Ibstock Plc
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