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As anticipated, the third-quarter results showed a decrease from last year, with an EBITDA decline of -14% to €102m. This trend was previously noted in the H1 and was due to reduced market prices across all countries affecting variable sales. However, this was partially mitigated by a 3-point increase in wind load factors in France and Italy during the third quarter. The group slightly raised its guidance, despite having lowered it in the H1.
Companies: ERG S.p.A (ERG:BIT)ERG S.p.A. (ERG:MIL)
AlphaValue
Negatively impacted by unfavourable wind conditions as well as EDP (but without the hydro dams to catch up) and a declining power price environment vs H1 22, ERG revised downwards its EBITDA guidance for 2023 from €500-550m to €480-520m.
ERG beat the consensus with an EBITDA down by 1% at €164m; this was higher than our expectations and those of the consensus at €135-136m. The EBITDA guidance was confirmed in a €500-550m range whilst capex will be €100m higher to €500-600m from €400-500m and the adjusted net debt will up by a similar amount to €1.4-1.5bn.
Despite a 13% drop in adjusted EBITDA to €126m in the last quarter, ERG managed to achieve a significant performance in 2022, and delivered a 10% increase in dividend to €1/share, mainly supported by ongoing asset rotation, thanks to larger installed capacities in a soaring energy price context. Following a 21% rise in installed capacity to €2,944 MW, the group will pursue its installation capacity program (40% organic and 60% M&A operations), mainly supported by Italy, France and the UK.
ERG confirmed the year-on-year increase in revenues for this third quarter, with EBITDA up by 62% to €411m in the 9M2022 period, driven by ongoing support from M&A transactions and organic growth. The group maintained a strong asset rotation system by reinvesting the income from assets in new projects and managed to obtain higher output thanks to a rising number of installed capacities across various geographies, including Italy, the United Kingdom, Spain, Poland and France. The group updated it
ERG unveiled a solid set of results, with EBITDA 55% higher than in H1 21 thanks to the contribution of the new capacities commissioned. In total, 445MW were added yoy, which represents 15% of the total operating portfolio expected by the end of 2022. Guidance was subsequently adjusted upward for EBITDA obviously, but also capex and net debt. Overall, the message sent to the market is a positive one. ERG keeps accelerating its profitable growth.
Here we go again. As in early 2021, ERG beat expectations in Q1 and upgraded its guidance by more than 12%. The 70% EBITDA growth was backed by better weather conditions and a higher asset base while net debt decreased significantly thanks to the hydro disposal, paving the way for intense M&A in the coming months. All lights are green.
Erg has confirmed that things have changed. Another beat on these FY21 results maintains the group with its bullish momentum. This is set to last as the 2022 targets are in line with estimates, and visibility is provided through the promising 2026 outlook. The €0.90 dividend per share – a new floor – came also as a positive, above expectations. In the current energy environment, where renewables should play a key role in the European energy transition, the group confirmed its strong positionin
Erg continued in its bullish operational momentum to release better-than-expected 9M 21 figures. EBITDA is up by 10.5% to €400m, mainly driven by high hydro production output. FY21 targets were consequently improved. Investments also clearly increased (3.3x) and the outlook was upgraded, a trend that should strengthen in the coming years after the €1bn hydro disposal to Enel. These positive developments seem already priced in. Our cautiousness on the stock remains.
Erg beat expectations in H1 with a 7% increase in EBITDA, driven by the strong performance in hydro production. Lower D&A and financial charges allowed net profits to soar by 43%. Accordingly, the group upgraded its FY21 guidance, especially for capex, expected to be 55% higher than the previous target. A strong set of results from the Italian group, particularly aggressive and opportunistic. But it remains to be seen whether the trend is sustainable.
Erg’s strong start to the year was more than offset by a very conservative new 2021-25 Business Plan. Indeed, the 3% and 22% increase in EBITDA and group net result, respectively, in Q1 allowed the Italian group to raise its guidance for FY21. On the other side, the €2.1bn in investments by 2025 should bring EBITDA to €550m at the end of the plan, a threshold we expected to reach in 2023. Between conservatism and disappointment, our negative view is confirmed.
While EBITDA at €481m is slightly below expectations, the adjusted group net result of €106m is in line. Globally, figures fell short of the target range but show no structural weaknesses. Capex should increase as investments outside Italy are numerous, but a clearer outlook for the FY21-FY25 period is expected when the Q1 21 results are released.
EBITDA decreased by 4% and came in at €156m. Group net result was broadly flat at €53m. The group suffered from tough comps for Italian wind conditions and overall lower electricity prices, partly offset by the good asset expansion outside Italy (wind production outside Italy was up by 46%). For the rest of the year, investment in solar energy is expected to drive growth. The group confirms its new guidance. No change in our model is expected.
Companies: ERG S.p.A.
EBITDA was €504m and the adjusted group net result €104m, both roughly in line with the consensus. Growth was mainly driven by the new 198MW installed, and the supportive wind conditions. The FY20 EBITDA guidance is €500-520m versus €522m in our model. Overall, even if we will revise our forecast slightly downwards, we confirm our positive view on the stock.
New installed wind capacity and the good performance of the gas division more than offset the unfavourable wind and hydro conditions. In all, EBITDA slightly increased, but the net income was impacted by the higher amortisation. Full-year guidance was confirmed.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ERG S.p.A.. We currently have 19 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
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