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Fortum surprised the market with a new cost reduction plan and a 33% reduction in its growth capex program through to 2025 from €1.5bn to €1bn. This programme has been welcomed by the market and is certainly in line with what investors have been hoping for in recent quarters for the sector, moving away from growth stocks with high capex, which are now at the bottom of the list in terms of performance.
Companies: Fortum Oyj
AlphaValue
A good first half for the group, which benefited from a positive price effect with an average price 50% higher than last year thanks to hedged contracts at high prices. The deconsolidation of the Russian assets has been well absorbed despite a €1.9bn impairment while the group intends to take legal action by 2024.
Fortum reported a good start to the year with EBITDA up by 69% to €891m (cons €722m) and €781m excluding Russia. The group confirmed the future deconsolidation of its Russian assets in the Q2 with an expected impairment charge of €1.9bn after FX effects.
2022 could have proven to be the death warrant for Fortum amidst the costly losses relating to Uniped leading to its deconsolidation but also, to a lesser extent, its exposure to Russia and the related impairments. However, Fortum managed to get back onto its feet and deliver more-than-acceptable results versus the market expectations, driven by both higher commodity prices and power generation, and managed to pay a dividend this year.
Fortum reported robust growth in the third quarter, amidst the deconsolidation of Uniper and the full exit from the Russian market. The fears concerning volatile energy markets and margin call requirements didn’t prevent the group from recording a strong performance, with a 14.5% increase in EBITDA to €1.54bn. Caution is however required for the coming months given the prevailing volatility in the commodities markets.
While Fortum’s results are severely affected by Uniper’s headwinds, leading to a massive loss of €11.6bn at the operating profit level, the latter must not mask the solid resilience of Fortum stand-alone. We note a particularly good performance of Generation and Russia vs the first quarter. However, the Q3 is at risk given current energy prices and the recognition of further Uniper losses from the gas curtailment. The worst might be yet to come.
Fortum reported a complex set of Q1 22 results which were littered with a plethora of one-off and extraordinary events, preventing us from drawing clear conclusions as to the health of the underlying business. No matter; in the current environment, the really big news was the announcement of a ‘controlled’ exit from Russia – although it remains to be seen what ‘controlled’ means…
Unfortunately for Fortum, a beat on the FY21 results now takes a back seat to Russian-led uncertainty. In particular, the group confirmed a €5.5bn book value of Russian assets, and a 185TWh/year of Russian long-term gas contracts (50% of Uniper’s contracted volumes), but uncertainty remains on the risks related to financial commitments, potentiality and timing of impairments, margin call risks, as well as the one which will bear the costs in the case of gas shortages.
Fortum missed our expectations and consensus estimates for the 9M 21 results, while the yoy figures remained very strong: comparable EBITDA is up by 102% and comparable EBIT multiplied by 3.5x to €1.47bn. The company particularly struggled to manage a very volatile gas market environment and surging power prices, impacting its funding requirements. However, the full-year outlook was reaffirmed and the dividend policy is intact. Cautious view confirmed.
What if the best solution for the energy transition were … nuclear power? Nuke is back at the heart of political debates in the context of the current energy crisis and massive but insufficient investments in renewables. This short review provides an overview of nuclear power in Europe and speculates on options. This ‘nuke optionality’, hinging on a favourable green taxonomy, is a game-changer for EDF, Centrica, Fortum but also Engie, Iberdrola, Enel and EDP.
Fortum has reported a good set of first half 2021 figures, slightly better than expectations and benefiting, in particular, from higher achieved power prices and volumes. Moreover, as a quarter of FY21 production remained unhedged (but only 10% for Uniper), we are confident on the H2 outlook. Closing of the Exergi sale expected before 2022. In our view, these elements are already priced in. Neutral recommendation confirmed.
Fortum has announced the sale of its 50% ownership in Stockholm Exergi for €2.9bn to an investor consortium led by APG, a Dutch pension fund. With a significant premium compared to our valuation, the deal will allow the group to deleverage and make its carbon footprint greener, as these two metrics worsened after the consolidation of Uniper. Is this enough to accelerate the asset rotation and a total squeeze-out of Uniper ?
Fortum released a solid set of Q1 21 figures. The strong performance of Uniper combined with positive price effects in the Nordics were the main drivers. As a result, net profit soared to €837m and beat expectations by 8%.
The group remained highly impacted by the low level of prices over Q4 20, resulting in a c.30% drop in the full-year operating profit (excluding Uniper). However, on the back of the particularly cold seasonal temperatures, prices are back to normal levels in the first months of the year. We confirm our negative recommendation.
EBITDA came in at €512m and operating profit at €207m, both below expectations. This is mainly due to the particularly low electricity prices in Q2 20, due to weather conditions – but the group was partly protected by its hedging strategy. This confirms that keeping its financial strength (with a minimum BBB rate) is the first short-term target. A FY20 guidance has still not been mentioned (due to the consolidation of Uniper and the COVID-19-related uncertainties).
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Tlou has released its Q4 update, reporting ongoing progress during recent months on its Lesedi CBM gas-to-power project in Botswana, with first electricity sales continuing to be targeted for 2024.
Companies: Tlou Energy Ltd
Zeus Capital
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target of A$0.75 per share: Diversified and high impact newsflow over the balance of 2024 – ADX has confirmed a very busy programme of activity from September. The overall unrisked value of the programme is ~A$1.70 per share, which represents 17x the current share price. In early September, ADX will drill the Anshof-2A side track. The well is expected to intersect thick Eocene reservoirs similar to that encountere
Companies: EQNR ENI GPRK ADX KAR WDS GALP REP REP EOG PANR TRIN ZPHR CHAR TTE ENI EQNR VAR ATOM GALP TCF
Auctus Advisors
◆ Juggernaut Exploration Ltd. (TSXV: JUGR) owns three highly prospective projects within, and close to, the Golden Triangle in NW BC, a Tier 1 region known for significant discoveries and developments. ◆ Each project is known to host high-grade gold-rich polymetallic discoveries that deserve additional exploration and resource assessment. ◆ The Company is supported by a well-respected fund group Crescat Capital that holds just under 20% of the share capital. ◆ The Company raised C$4.8 million
Companies: Juggernaut Exploration Ltd
Couloir Capital
Companies: 88 Energy Limited (88E:LON)Brighton Pier Group Plc (PIER:LON)
Cavendish
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Cadence Minerals (KDNC). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.
Companies: Cadence Minerals PLC
Edison
Prospex Energy (PXEN LN) has announced a ten year extension of the licence concessions for its Spanish El Romeral project where the company produces natural gas and converts it to electricity. The extension was for the maximum allowable ten years to 2034 and can be extended to 2044. We note the Spanish Government’s quote highlighting the benefits of the extension and its securing electricity supply to the grid for the long-term. This follows the declaration in 2023 of the plant as a Public Utili
Companies: Prospex Energy Plc
VSA Capital
i3 Energy is an AIM and TSX-listed oil and gas company with a diversified 20kboe/d production base onshore Canada, which offers UK investors attractive exposure to North American E&P themes. The Company's production growth strategy is sensibly hedged to pivot between acquiring producing assets when commodity prices are low and to invest in its low-risk drilling inventory when prices are high.
Companies: i3 Energy Plc
SP Angel
Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: Medica Group plc has left the Premium Segment of the Main Market. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Blackpoint Biotech plc, a medical cannabinoids company established to fulfil gaps in the medical cannabis market by creating products that provide fast onset of action and accurate dosing, intends to join intends to join the Access Segment of the AQSE Growth Market. Expected Admission 20 July 2023. Metals One Plc, a company focusing on acquiring natural resou
Companies: TNTAF CRL ITM VAST CMX RENX MAFL HE1
Hybridan
24th June 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced, or it is a rumour Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: TUI AG (TUI.L) has left the Premium Segment of the Main Market. Bens Creek Group (BEN) has left AIM. What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: ITF announced: 19 June 2024: IntelliAM, an artificial intelligence co
Companies: TBLD SKL AUK EDEN WBI KDR SUP
i3 Energy announced that its 2024 guidance consists of expectations to drill 10.5 net wells (7.6 net wells in Central Alberta, 1.9 net wells in Simonette and 1.0 net wells in the Clearwater play) with 85% of capex allocated to the second half of the year. Total capex expenditure for the year is guided at $US 50.9m. The company indicated that it intends to commence pad drilling of its Montney acreage in Q1 2025 and we perceive the company is bulking up for that significant growth opportunity for
I3E is a UK and Canada listed E&P company, with a significant producing asset position onshore Canada in Alberta.
Union Jack has released the successful initial results of its Andrews 2-17 well (Union Jack 45%), which has been drilled on the company’s West Bowlegs asset in Oklahoma.
Companies: Union Jack Oil Plc
Panthera Resources (PAT.L) recently (25/08/23) made an important announcement that could potentially unlock the value of its world-class Bhukia gold project in Rajasthan, north-west India. Non-recourse litigation financing of US$13.6m has been secured from LCM Funding SG Pty Ltd, a subsidiary of Litigation Capital Management Ltd (LITL: AIM), a leading global disputes funder, to pursue a claim against the Republic of India for a breach of treaty obligations under the 1999 Agreement between Austra
Companies: Panthera Resources Plc
Allenby Capital
Serica Energy is a ~US800 mm market cap company with >40 mboe/d production and 140 mmboe of 2P reserves in the UK North Sea. The investment case is about value and generous shareholder distributions. The strategy is to maximize the value of two key producing hubs, depending on the UK’s tax policy, to develop a third one at Buchan Horst and to grow via M&A. Over the last 2 years, the share price has been negatively impacted by the reduction in UK gas prices and fiscal uncertainty. Serica’s divide
Companies: Serica Energy PLC
Condor Energies (CDR CN)C: Signing first LNG framework agreement in Kazakhstan – Condor has signed a first LNG Framework Agreement for the utilization of LNG to fuel Kazakhstan’s rail locomotives. The agreement was also signed by Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), the national railway operator of Kazakhstan and Wabtec Corporation, a U.S. based locomotive manufacturer with existing facilities in Kazakhstan. KTZ and Wabtec previously signed a memorandum of understanding which includes modernization wor
Companies: TCFF OKEA MAHAA TNZ MCF ENW PHAR NOG BWEFF MAHAA OKEA EGY