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Q4/20 operational EBIT of EUR 49m (Arctic: EUR 59m, Cons.: EUR 65m) NIBD of EUR 1,460m vs EUR 1,459m in Q3/20 and EUR 1.4bn target Harvesting volumes of 127’t – 1.8’t below expectations Full Q4/20 report due 17 February
Companies: Mowi ASA
Arctic Securities
The 2021 volume guidance was disappointing vs our estimate and, coupled with lower price assumptions, we have lowered our estimates in this update. Supply prospects are still healthy and demand could be stronger for longer once the market normalizes. However, we still see high uncertainty short-term and believe consensus will move lower for Q4/20 and H1/21 – we are ~20% below for 2021. We stick to Hold and lower our TP to NOK 170 (175).
EBIT of EUR 80m, in line with the trading update No dividend for Q3/20 (Arctic: NOK 0, Cons.: NOK 0.13) Unchanged 2020 volume guidance at 442’t, 2021 at 445’t (new) Estimates to be revised lower due to recent salmon sales price trend
Q3/20 operational EBIT of EUR 80m (Arctic: EUR 81m, Cons.: EUR 69m) NIBD of ~ EUR 1,460m – marginally above our EUR 1,443m forecast Harvesting volumes of 126’t – 2’t below expectations Q3/20 report due on Wednesday 4 November
We expect Mowi to release its Q3 trading update around 15 October. Following lower (~NOK 1.5/kg) than previously expected salmon prices for the quarter, we now expect an EBIT of EUR 81m (95) but above consensus at EUR 69m. Our estimates are unchanged from Q4 onwards. Current salmon prices in the mid NOK 40s and adverse demand effects from Covid-19 represent short-term risks. We stick to Hold and our NOK 175 target price.
Mowi reported an operational EBIT of EUR 99m – in line with its trading update guiding. The company’s opex/kg is high, and we have lowered our estimates by 6% and 7% for 2020–21. As Mowi’s NIBD is on par with its target, we now assume zero dividends for H2/20, while expect NOK 8 per share for both 2021 and 2022. The company is however vulnerable to soft salmon prices, and we stick to our Hold rating and lower our TP to NOK 175 (185).
EBIT of EUR 99m, in line with trading update guiding of EUR 96m No dividend for Q2/20 (Arctic: NOK 1.0, Cons.: NOK 0.8) FY/20 volume guiding lowered by 8’t (Scotland) to 442’t Estimates to be revised lower by 5-10%
Q2/20 operational EBIT of EUR 96m (Arctic: EUR 80m, Cons.: EUR 81m) Better than expected margins in all regions except Norway NIBD at EUR 1,380m vs EUR 1,357m in Q1/20 (Arctic: EUR 1,359m) Share price relief likely due to earnings beat
Salmon prices held up much better than feared during Q2/20, and although Norwegian prices came in NOK 4/kg above our previous assumptions, US prices disappointed. Mowi is set to release its trading update around 15 July, and we now expect an operational EBIT of EUR 80m (83) vs consensus at EUR 75m. Seasonality adds short-term risk, and we stick to our Hold rating as well as our NOK 185 target price in this preview.
Covid-19 has been identified on a cutting board for salmon The Chinese have apparently stopped all sales of salmon China comprises 5% of global demand Short-term noise and bad timing, but very modest impact longer-term
The Q1/20 report contained few surprises with figures in-line with the trading update. The FY/20 volume guidance was kept unchanged and costs in all regions except for Scotland are expected to be stable going into Q2/20. We have lowered our FY/20 estimates by 10% as we previously expected lower costs, while we have made minor changes to FY/21. We stick to our Hold rating as well as our NOK 185 target price.
EBIT of EUR 109m in line with trading update guiding (EUR 107m) FY/20 volume guidance reiterated at 450’t (450’t) FY/20 cash flow guiding virtually unchanged FY/20 estimates to be lowered by ~10% (costs), modest FY/21 changes
Q1/20 EBIT of EUR 107m (Arctic: 128m, Cons: EUR 155m) Harvesting volumes of 83’t (84’t) EBIT/kg margins below expectations in all regions except for Chile Postpones dividend in light of COVID-19, costs set to increase
Mowi is expected to release its trading update around 14 April, and we expect a Q1 EBIT pre FV adj. of EUR 128m (123) vs consensus at EUR 181m. The Coronavirus has created uncertainty in the entire value chain and spot prices have trended lower recently. We believe there is downside risk to Q2/3 and would not be surprised if Mowi lowers its DPS which would be negative for the yield. We stick to Hold and lower our TP to NOK 190 (235).
We have lowered our 2020 estimates by 8% following higher cost assumptions, mainly for Norway and Canada, as well as a lower contribution from Consumer Products. In addition, higher than expected WC and CapEx implies that Mowi will be above its NIBD target during H2/20, which could represent downside risk to the quarterly DPS of NOK 2.60. As of now, we still find valuation to be fair and stick to our Hold rating and NOK 235 target price.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Mowi ASA. We currently have 15 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
MP Evans is one of the most efficient producers of sustainable palm oil in Indonesia with a proven track record of developing valuable plantations and, more recently, buying plantations at excellent prices. The 2022 spike in the CPO price created a surge in FCF which has supported the execution of its development strategy, evidenced by the two acquisitions in 2023 and the commissioning of a sixth mill in February 2023. MP Evans is at the start of a ten-year cash flow window where maintenance cap
Companies: M.P. Evans Group PLC
Cavendish
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The second full year of Greggs’ five-year growth plan to double revenue by FY26 should be marked down as very successful, especially so given the challenging external environment. Unlike many consumer-facing companies, high selling price inflation was accompanied by volume growth, leading to good market share gains. The consumer is responding well to new initiatives to grow revenue in new dayparts and digital channels. Profitability was well-managed with better recovery of input cost inflation t
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Carr’s Group has announced an updated strategy that offers the potential for value realisation and creation from a number of avenues. These include: value realisation of the Engineering Division; the ability to significantly reduce central costs; and longer-term value creation in the Agriculture Division as a focused business with recovery potential and a strategy to leverage its strong market positions for growth.
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The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. For the second year running, apart from global economic influences affecting world markets, performance in 2023 was dented by the capital-intensive nature of the sector. The HHI fell 3.7%, to 483.8, underperforming the main London markets – FTSE 100 (+3.8%) and FTSE All-Share (3.8%) but outperforming the FTSE AIM All-Share Index (
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Hardman & Co
We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $22.50 price target for Betterware de Mexico with the company announcing 1Q24 (March) results after the close on Thursday. We believe, with momentum returning at the Betterware division, JAFRA remaining on a new product and marketing focus, the United States market becoming a larger emphasis and BWMX continuing to offer a compelling (and secure) dividend yield of 8.5%, BWMX remains well positioned to reward investors on multiple levels, and we r
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Small Cap Consumer Research LLC
NICL's FY23 results showed good progress made as the Packaged business continued to drive growth through product innovation and geographic expansion. Inflationary pressures were largely mitigated and the benefits from the restructuring of the Out of Home (OoH) business are starting to come through, leading to improved profitability. Free cash flow generation was very strong in the year, resulting in an improved net cash position of £67.0m (vs £56.3m at end-FY22). Given the high levels of cash on
Companies: Nichols plc
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Nichols’s trading update signals an in-line FY19 outcome driven by UK market share gains and good international progress. The main news today is the recent 50% excise tax on non-carbonated drinks in Saudi Arabia/UAE. This is a headwind going into FY20 which at this juncture is extremely difficult to quantify given c.80% of in-country sales of Vimto in the Middle East are made during the one month of Ramadan. Our analysis shows a potential c.£2.5-£4m PBT hit. Given the uncertainty we prudently fa
Singer Capital Markets
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