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12 May 2023
Sell more, earn less (and 15 qs)
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Sell more, earn less (and 15 qs)
METRO AG (B4B:HAM) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
12 May 2023 -
Author:
Gwynn Andrew AG | Schumacher Anna AS -
Pages:
10 -
Buy new, pay less seems to be supporting revenue but earnings are another matter
Despite its echoes with past turnaround plans, Metro''s SCORE project seems to be fairing well with Q2 (calendar Q1) sales up 10% and the group it seems, taking market share in many of its key markets. The group was particularly keen to highlight the success of ''buy more, pay less'' which seems to be gaining wallet share with customers. The problem, we and the market have however is working out whether there''s a financial return in the improvements. At face value, it seems not yet but as always, there''s a lot going on. Either way, valuation remains unappealing in our view.
Partially adjusting earnings doesn''t help our understanding
Perhaps the biggest challenge in modelling Metro is an insistence on only partially adjusting reporting for ''transformation costs'' and real estate gains. Meanwhile, it is challenging to reconcile movements in ''other'' (including occasional provision releases) and understanding with better precision how much ''mid-to-high double-digit'' drag was on EBITDA from a cyber-attack in Q1.
Unchanged guidance leaves a broad range of outcomes for H2
Half way through the year, we hoped the group might refine guidance (adjusted EBITDA down EUR75m to EUR225m) to aid visibility. The group may be steering us toward the mid-point of the range, but mid-way point of the year, we''re down EUR101m. Leaving open the possibility that EBITDA may be up slightly in H2 (top end of the range) or down by the same amount as H1 despite we hope, no more cyber-attacks (bottom end), doesn''t help us understand the outlook.
Paying a lot to wait for more visibility which we think is unappealing
The reason for the subdued profit guidance was in part the cyber-attack but also headwinds from cost inflation, Russia, and the expiry of service agreements. However, if we can''t separate the drivers, we''re left contemplating whether better top-line means less earnings. In this...