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29 Jan 2025
Catastrophe or speedbump?

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Catastrophe or speedbump?
PUMA SE (PUM:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
29 Jan 2025 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO | Strauss Mia MS | Barker Nick NB -
Pages:
13 -
Getting back on track
After Puma''s disappointing Q4 results, today''s analyst conference call shed more light on the quarter. Although the +9.8% constant currency sales growth in Q4 was a solid outcome, albeit lower than consensus, profitability was particularly disappointing. Management''s swift cost-cutting measures suggest a more challenging outlook. We cut our forecasts and target price but maintain our Outperform rating, as we still see potential for multiple expansion as profitability improves.
Conference call takeaways
Given the significant attention surrounding one sneaker, we were surprised by the lack of questions about Speedcat, although management remained upbeat about its prospects. We provide key takeaways from the call inside.
Forecast changes
Management will provide 2025 guidance on 12 March. We have reduced our 2025 EBIT forecast from EUR 740m to EUR 680m, reflecting a lower base and factoring in lower sales growth and no gross margin expansion. Our EPS forecast decreases further, reflecting the disappointing net income progression in the last quarter. Nevertheless, we still anticipate EPS growth of over 20% based on +7.5% cFX sales growth, stable gross margins and a stable cost-to-sales ratio.
Outperform, target price lowered to EUR 40
We have made more conservative assumptions in our DCF valuation, including lowering our terminal operating margin to 8.5%, management''s 2027 guidance, from 10%, its longer-term ambition. Despite this, we still see significant upside to the shares and maintain our Outperform rating. The stock currently (at EUR 31) trades on 2025 P/E 13.3x, based on our forecasts. Our target price implies that Puma shares will maintain this forward multiple as its earnings grow.