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27 Feb 2024
FY Results: a gentle CMD warm-up (& 15qs)
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FY Results: a gentle CMD warm-up (& 15qs)
PUMA SE (PUM:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
27 Feb 2024 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO | Strauss Mia MS | Barker Nick NB -
Pages:
18 -
No big surprises in FY results
Puma had pre-released its full year results and given preliminary 2024 guidance back in late-January. Today''s full set of results added some regional detail to the Q4 23 results, highlighted an impressive inventory reduction, and reiterated the 2024 EBIT guidance. Profits are likely to be H2-weighted, with near term trading commentary relatively downbeat. We adjust our estimates, having not changed them post-warning, and look ahead to the CMD later this week. We stick to our Neutral rating.
Q4 summary - pre-released but a few more details
Today''s results provided the detail behind the pre-released Q4 headlines. Inventory was tightly controlled (EUR 1.8bn vs Visible Alpha consensus EUR 2.0bn, BNPP Exane EUR 1.9bn) but management said there is still too much inventory in the wholesale channel in China and the US.
Outlook - unchanged guidance but flagging a soft start to the year
Management reiterated its 2024 guidance (mid-single-digit constant currency sales growth, EBIT EUR 620-700m), albeit added that Net Income should progress in line with EBIT. This implies some hang-over of financial charges relating to Argentina. Management expects flattish constant currency sales in Q1 because January was weak in its major markets, albeit EMEA significantly improved in February. Management did not comment on its 2025 margin target of 10% but will likely address this topic at its Capital Markets Event later this week (29 February and 1 March).
Cutting estimates in line with guidance, target price down to EUR 48
We adjust our estimates for management''s 2024 profit guidance, forecasting 2024 EBIT of EUR 675m (consensus EUR 676m). We model 2025 EBIT margins of 8%. Our price target falls to EUR 48 (from EUR 60), given the sharp reduction in profit forecasts and now based on long term margins of c.9%. We maintain our Neutral rating and prefer Adidas (+) and JD Sports (+) in the sports sector.