A cautious but confident cat Puma''s FY results were all about mgmt''s 2022 guidance since Q4 21 had been pre-released. On balance we felt the full year guidance was quite encouraging from a historically conservative management team. We raise our 2022 EBIT forecasts by c.4%, although we remain a touch below consensus and the top end of guidance, and our EPS forecasts are broadly unchanged. We do see upside risk if the environment remains steady, however, and maintain our Outperform rating. Q4 results: China the only area of weakness Although Q4 headlines had been pre-released, the detail revealed a small EPS miss, a DPS beat, stronger cash generation despite higher inventories (which were largely due to goods in transit) and a notably weak performance in China. Constant currency sales were -27% yoy in China during Q4 as weak footfall caused by Covid lockdowns compounded by the difficulty western brands are having marketing and selling online. Guidance for 2022: couldn''t have hoped for more Management guided for ''at least'' 10% cFX sales growth in 2022 (consensus c.+12%). It said that January was already double-digit and that the wholesale order book was the strongest ever, which implies 30% yoy. EBIT guidance of EUR 600-700m was also quite encouraging, given the company''s historical conservatism, with the top-end of the range in line with consensus (EUR 701m). We raise from EUR 645m to EUR 670m. Our EPS forecasts for 2022 and 2023 remain broadly unchanged, with 2023 EBIT margin a touch under management''s 10% ambition. Valuation: still an undervalued player We continue to see attractive sales and margin potential. Its high near-term multiple (CY22 P/E c.32.6x at EUR 86.9) should fall sharply to CY23 P/E c.24.4x and reverse DCF implies the market is only pricing in 10% EBIT margins in the long term. Our price target is based on DCF valuation which assumes long term margins of 14%; we trim it as we apply the same valuation assumptions to...