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06 Nov 2024
Q3 results: bullish cat

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Q3 results: bullish cat
PUMA SE (PUM:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
06 Nov 2024 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO | Strauss Mia MS | Barker Nick NB -
Pages:
9 -
Results as advertised, now to 2025; raising TP to EUR 49
Puma''s Q3 results met consensus expectations and a bullish conference call reversed early share weakness. Management said that October had started well and it expects double-digit growth in Q4 across all channels and regions. The Speedcat shoe''s momentum is driving its confidence, both initial sell-out and the forward order book. With a robust outlook for Q4 and improved 2025 visibility, we reiterate our Outperform.
Q3 delivered, Q4 guidance robust
Q3 EBIT of EUR 237m beat consensus EUR 231m, while EPS was in line. Direct-to-consumer sales growth remained strong (+17%), and Wholesale turned modestly positive (+1.5%). Management''s Q4 guidance is robust, with double-digit growth implied for October. It maintained full year guidance, directing the market to the mid-point for Q4 EBIT (EUR 132m), where consensus currently sits.
Looking ahead to 2025
Next year is crucial for Puma, with ambitious sales targets supported by a strong order book. Management expects absolute profit growth and margin expansion. It is bullish on its Speedcat product, calling its performance in Asia ''very encouraging'' and expects to sell mid-single-digit millions of units in 2025. Lifestyle apparel is also poised to improve next year, driven by a halo effect and a stronger H1 25 order book.
Reiterate Outperform
We lower our FY24 forecasts as we had underestimated Q3 interest costs, but our call is focused on brand momentum driving a multiple re-rating. Q3 results give us more confidence about this. We raise our long-term margin estimate to 10% (broadly what the company achieved last quarter) and increase our DCF-derived price target to EUR 49 (from EUR 45).