Q3 results: what happened?
Puma''s Q3 results are in line with expectations. Constant currency sales growth was 5.0%, meeting management''s mid-single-digit guide. EBIT of EUR 237m slightly beat consensus of EUR 231m, while EPS was in line. Management leaves its FY24 EBIT guidance unchanged at EUR 620-670m.
BNPP Exane View: EBIT in line, guidance maintained
Overall we expect these results to be overshadowed by world events today - other things equal the shares should be fairly neutral. Q3 profits were slightly head of consensus expectations but EPS was in line. In the detail, DTC sales growth slowed modestly while Wholesale accelerated as expected, albeit the growth is modest. Management''s unchanged FY EBIT guidance range of EUR 620-670m suggests that consensus is unlikely to change. We think 2025 is more important for the stock and the earnings call at 3pm CET should hopefully provide more on the outlook.
Likely direction of consensus
FY24 EBIT consensus sits at EUR 640m, just below the middle of the reiterated EUR 620-670m guided range. We expect consensus to remain broadly unchanged today.
Anticipated market reaction
Puma shares are -17% year to date (versus DAX40 index +15%). Bulls will point to the EBIT beat, the continued strong DTC growth and the strong wholesale order book; Bears will point to the shallow recovery in wholesale and sales miss in EMEA. In a normal market - unlikely today given the US election - we would expect the share price reaction to be fairly neutral.
Conference call
Presentation and QandA at 3pm CET / 2pm UK. A listen-only webcast is available on the corporate website.
Valuation
Puma trades on CY24 P/E of 19.0x and CY25 P/E of 14.3x on our forecasts (at EUR 42.1).
Main points from Q3 results
. Q3 constant currency sales growth: Puma''s Q3 cFX sales growth of +5.0% was in line with sell-side expectations (Visible Alpha consensus +5.0%) and guidance of mid-single-digit growth.
. Q3 cFX sales detail: by...
