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31 May 2024
100 questions (and 25 charts) ahead of the CMD

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100 questions (and 25 charts) ahead of the CMD
Beiersdorf AG (BEI:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
31 May 2024 -
Author:
Omanadze Mikheil MO | Stent Jeff JS | Kayser Leon LK -
Pages:
37 -
Capital Markets Day on 18th June
Beiersdorf will host a CMD in Hamburg on 18th June. It will give an update on its C.A.R.E.+ strategy and provide a deep dive into specific business areas and opportunities ahead. In this report, we provide 100 questions (accompanied by 25 charts) that would be useful for management to address to give investors a better view of industry dynamics and the Beiersdorf equity story.
We expect focus on innovation and product launches as well as colour on luxury trends
We expect Beiersdorf to provide colour on its innovation (and renovation) pipeline and recent/ upcoming launches for Nivea (additional Luminous 630 launches and opportunities in the acne treatment area) and Eucerin (roll-out of Face Care in the US and innovation in the field of epigenetics). We also expect Beiersdorf to provide an update on the trajectory of sales trends at La Prairie and Chantecaille post the Asian travel retail inventory clean-up which completed in Q1.
Beiersdorf may point to the upper end of Consumer FY24 LFL guidance
With Consumer FY24 LFL guidance upgraded to +6-8% (from MSD) relatively recently (in mid-April), we expect Beiersdorf to err on the side of conservatism and maintain the range, albeit potentially pointing to its upper end. Note that we estimate Consumer FY LFL of +8.8% (vs. Visible Alpha consensus at +8.1%). We expect Consumer FY margin guidance of +50bp YOY to be reiterated.
We reiterate our Outperform recommendation
With scope for a positive surprise on FY24 LFL and d-digit EPS growth in FY24/25, combined with palatable valuation, we continue to view shares as attractive and reiterate our Outperform rating.
Top question
Are you not concerned that you may be pushing the limits of Nivea as a mass offering in terms of pricing, which may lead to volume elasticities (which W. European scanner data seems to point to)?