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01 Feb 2024
A few things to get excited about

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A few things to get excited about
Beiersdorf AG (BEI:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
01 Feb 2024 -
Author:
Omanadze Mikheil MO | Stent Jeff JS | Kayser Leon LK -
Pages:
35 -
With Beiersdorf shares being well liked / owned, what to get excited about from here?
As highlighted in our investor feedback, we sense that Beiersdorf is now well-liked by both hedge funds and long-only investors, who appear to agree with our view that it is an attractive way to play beauty growth at a more palatable valuation vs. L''Oreal. So, what can drive the shares from here?
Could we see pricing in Europe? Yes, really
While this may sound heretical given the context, our detailed analysis of 10 years of European Nielsen data suggests that Nivea has consistently priced below competition in most of its key categories in Western Europe over the past decade. With beauty management now in situ and a solid innovation plan, we see scope for Beiersdorf to drive further valorisation.
Consensus underestimates white space expansion potential of Eucerin
We estimate that ~40% of Eucerin''s sales are generated in the US and Germany, with the brand still being in a white space expansion mode. With LFL around or above +20% p.a. in the past 3 years, we view VA cons. FY24 LFL expectation for Eucerin of +12.7% as rather modest; we est. +15.0%.
Looking further ahead, innovation can provide a tangible increment to the top-line
In the coming years, innovation in acne treatment (Beiersdorf acquired S-Biomedic in Dec-22) can provide a tangible increment to sales; to bring an analogy, products with the latest big innovation Thiamidol (hyperpigmentation) added almost 4% to Consumer sales between FY18 and FY22.
Best-in-class EPS growth should underpin the shares'' outperformance even without re-rating
Coupling the above with easy volume comps for Nivea in H1 (de-listings in Europe in H123), easy comps for La Prairie and Chantecaille, margin expansion (growing EM manufacturing footprint), B/S optionality (bolt-on MandA, potential to increase dividend) and, consequently, best-in-class EPS growth (c.+17%/+11% in FY24/25), we believe the shares can outperform even without...