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FY20 results and 15 questions for management
Beiersdorf AG (BEI:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
17 Feb 2021 -
Author:
Omanadze Mikheil MO | Stent Jeff JS | Lim Joan JL | Karia Vyoma VK -
Pages:
16 -
Summary of FY20 results
While Q420 results came in broadly in-line with consensus expectations (and were likely better than some had feared), all focus was around margin rebasing in light of the newly announced EUR300m of investment in sustainability, digitalisation, and growth markets in the next 5 years, with FY21 guidance of Group and Consumer EBIT margins at the prior levels implying c.-7% consensus earnings downgrades in FY21.
News
Beiersdorf explained the incremental EUR300m of investment by the sense of urgency to invest behind longer-term growth as Beiersdorf is seeing acceleration in some trends at a faster pace than it envisaged in 2019, at the previous margin reset stage (e.g. digitalisation, sustainability).
Earnings
We reduce our EPS estimates by c.-6% for FY21e/22e, and c.-7% for FY23e, primarily as a result of incorporating Beiersdorf''s guidance on margins (both for FY21 and beyond).
Investment thesis
Yes, confidence in management is low, however nervousness around margins is likely to abate post rebasing. Against this backdrop, we believe that Beiersdorf still offers a good organic growth profile and will now likely see two years of above-par organic growth; combining this with close to a record low valuation relative to peers, we see attraction in the shares.
Rating / target price
We maintain our Outperform rating. Our target price moves to EUR105 (from EUR111 before).
15 questions for management
Assuming normalisation of the Covid situation starting from H221, is it fair to think of FY22 as a post Covid year and hence to expect Consumer EBIT to grow ahead of sales in FY22?