BNPP Exane View
While results are broadly in-line (some feared a Q4 Consumer miss) and a further SBB will be welcomed, as will the CEO contract extension to 2030, this will likely be somewhat tempered by what the market makes of FY25 Consumer LFL guidance of +4-6% (cons: +6%) and comments on the skin care market growing at a slower pace. We expect a neutral share price reaction.
Headline metrics
. Q4 Group LFL: +6.3% (cons +6.6%)
. Q4 Consumer LFL: +8.2% (cons +7.7%)
. Q4 Tesa LFL: -2.0% (cons +1.9%)
. FY EBIT mgn Group: 13.9% (cons 13.9%)
. FY EBIT mgn Consumer: 13.4% (cons 13.4%)
. FY EBIT mgn Tesa: 16.3% (cons 15.9%)
. FY EBIT Group: EUR1,370m (-0.4% vs. cons)
. FY EPS: EUR4.31 (+0.2% vs. cons)
. FY DPS: EUR1.00 (-2.1% vs. cons)
Note: all consensus estimates are as per Visible Alpha (VA).
Top-line drivers
Scanning the Q4 top-line Consumer drivers by region, the main surprise relative to VA consensus expectations is in Eastern Europe (+12.6% vs. VA cons at +8.0%) and Latin America (+14.1% vs. VA cons at +9.2%) and this helped to offset weakness in Western Europe (+3.3% vs. VA cons at +6.0%) and North America (+6.0% vs. VA cons at +9.5%).
Examining Q4 LFL by brand, the shape is broadly as expected.
Bottom-line drivers
The +50bp margin expansion reflects GM: +110bp (H1: +150bp); Marketing and Selling: -70bp (H1: -180bp); RandD: -20bp (H1: -20bp); GandA: -10bp (H1: -70bp) and Other Operating: +40bp (H1: +30bp).
Other
. SBB: up to EUR500m
. FCF: EUR1,105m (+EUR505m YOY)
. Net cash (''net liquidity''): EUR4,566m
. CEO contract: Extended to the end of 2030
Outlook / guidance
. Group LFL: +4-6% (VA cons: +5.6%)
. Consumer LFL: +4-6% (VA cons: +6.0%)
. Tesa LFL: +1-3% (VA cons: +3.8%)
. Group margin: Slightly above the PY (VA cons: +40bp)
. Consumer margin: +50bp (VA cons: +60bp)
. Tesa margin: around 16% (VA cons: 16.1%)
. Note: Beiersdorf comments that the global skin care market is expected to continue growing in 2025, although at a slower pace than...
