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16 Apr 2024
Q124 sales and 15 questions for management

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Q124 sales and 15 questions for management
Beiersdorf AG (BEI:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
16 Apr 2024 -
Author:
Omanadze Mikheil MO | Stent Jeff JS | Kayser Leon LK -
Pages:
17 -
Summary of Q124 sales
Beiersdorf''s Q1 Group LFL at +7.3% came in ahead of Visible Alpha (VA) consensus expectation of +5.9%; the beat was driven by Consumer with LFL at +10.0% vs. VA consensus at +6.7%, while Tesa missed with LFL at -5.4% vs. VA consensus at +2.8%. Scanning Q1 Consumer delivery by brands, we note that the beat was largely driven by Nivea with LFL at +12.6% vs. VA consensus at +7.5%; we also note that La Prairie posted positive LFL at +1.0% (VA consensus at +0.7%). As to FY guidance, LFL outlook for Group and Consumer was raised to +6-8% from MSD before.
News
Reflecting on the US beauty market, Beiersdorf doesn''t have any consumer insight suggesting that there is a big change in the way consumers are buying. Looking at the first week of April, Beiersdorf feels more positive looking at the market dynamics.
Earnings
We increase our EPS estimates by c.2% in FY24e/25e/26e.
Investment thesis
LFL sales growth should continue to positively surprise in FY24, and the valuation is palatable. In addition, we see double-digit earnings growth in both FY24 and FY25.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Outperform rating. As a result of our estimates revisions, our target price moves to EUR149 from EUR146 before.
15 questions for management
Is there an element of conservatism baked into your revised Consumer LFL guidance of +6-8%? If yes, which parts of the business do you think can surprise positively?