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15 Apr 2025
Q125 conf call: colour on Q2/FY expectations

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Q125 conf call: colour on Q2/FY expectations
BNPP Exane View
The two key comments from the call are that 1) Beiersdorf expects Q2 Consumer LFL to be at the lower end of the +4-6% range (Bbg cons at +5.8%, for what it''s worth we expect +4.1%) and 2) while Beiersdorf hopes to be at the upper end of the Consumer LFL guidance range for the FY, it could end up at the lower end. While the release this morning was a relief, the conf call comments are unlikely to spark material incremental attraction for the shares, as sell-side consensus LFL expectations are likely to be subject to some downward revisions for Q2/FY (although this was to some extent expected by the buy-side). Additionally, key European beauty peer''s share price weakness today is likely weighing a bit on Beiersdorf shares. In a nutshell, we find the share price reaction (around +1% at the moment of writing) understandable.
QandA highlights
. Tariffs: In the US, only a small part of imports is coming outside US/Mexico (and Mexico is covered by the free trade agreement), hence, so far - no material direct impacts. As for indirect impacts, there is a risk that consumer sentiment may weaken. At the moment US market is growing LSD and Beiersdorf is outperforming.
. La Prairie: Q2 is expected to be hopefully flat, more pronounced improvement to come in H2. The objective was to have clean inventory levels at the end of Q1.
. Q2: So far, Beiersdorf plans to be at the lower end of the Consumer guidance range (+4-6%) for Q2, partially driven by Easter timing impact on suncare and the fact that many launches are coming in H2. Beiersdorf assumes a normal sun season.
. Epicelline: Nivea will be launched in Q3.
. North America: Coppertone - beginning of the season was not v. good (the market was down) also it is losing market share (on the contrary Eucerin Sun is gaining share). Coppertone is negative and La Prairie was slightly negative as well. These two factors explain NorAm LFL vs. v. strong Nivea and Eucerin in the US.
. Manager Magazin...