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27 Oct 2022
Q322 sales and 15 questions for management

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Q322 sales and 15 questions for management
Beiersdorf AG (BEI:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
27 Oct 2022 -
Author:
Omanadze Mikheil MO | Stent Jeff JS | Lim Joan JL -
Pages:
14 -
Summary of Q322 sales
Beiersdorf''s Group Q322 LFL at +12.3% came in materially ahead of consensus at +9.7%, with Consumer at +11.8% vs. cons. at +10.7% and Tesa at +14.3% vs. cons. at +8.6%. Scanning the implied Q322 top-line drivers by Consumer regions, all regions came in ahead of consensus bar Western Europe with Q322 LFL (implied from 9M22) at +3.6% vs. cons. at +6.6%. Scanning Q322 LFL by brand, we note that Nivea grew by +9.9% (cons. +7.9%), La Prairie by +14.0% (cons. +15.0%), Derma by +22.6% (cons. +18.8%) and Healthcare by +8.8% (cons. +8.7%).
News
One needs to see how the market develops in 2023, but Beiersdorf aims to outperform; it agreed that mid-single digit Consumer LFL expectation for FY23 is reasonable.
Earnings
We increase our EPS estimates by c.1% in FY22e and maintain broadly unchanged in FY23e/24e.
Investment thesis
We believe that Beiersdorf offers a good organic growth profile and margin expansion potential from a low starting point. Coupling this with the new management team and increased possibility of the balance sheet being used, we see attraction in the shares.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Outperform rating. Our target price moves to EUR120 from EUR124 before (reflecting a reduction in target multiple given recent market weakness).
15 questions for management
Even if one assumes the upper end of your FY Consumer LFL guidance (+10%), one would have to expect a very material sequential slowdown in growth in Q422 on a 3-Y CAGR (+1.9% vs. +4.8% in Q322). Given how October has been developing so far, how realistic is such a scenario?