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25 Oct 2023
Q323 sales and 15 questions for management

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Q323 sales and 15 questions for management
Beiersdorf AG (BEI:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
25 Oct 2023 -
Author:
Omanadze Mikheil MO | Stent Jeff JS | Kayser Leon LK -
Pages:
13 -
Summary of Q323 sales
Beiersdorf''s Q3 Group LFL at +9.0% came in below Visible Alpha (VA) consensus expectation of +9.5%, with Consumer at +10.9% (VA cons +11.2%) and Tesa at +1.5% (VA cons +3.1%). Scanning Q3 Consumer LFL by brands, we note that Nivea grew by +15.8% (VA cons +13.5%), La Prairie declined by -27.6% (VA cons -4.1%), Derma grew by +22.2% (VA cons +19.6%) and Healthcare grew by +2.0% (VA cons +4.6%) - therefore, the miss in Consumer was driven largely by La Prairie.
News
Beiersdorf commented that the predominant driver behind La Prairie''s weak print was the adjustment of its inventory levels (75% of inventory reduction was completed in Q3 and the remining 25% is to be done by the end of Q4), with sell-out for La Prairie up MSD YOY in Q3 and showing an encouraging trend; for instance, Hainan sell-out grew by +33% in Q3.
Earnings
We maintain our EPS estimates broadly unchanged in FY23e/24e/25e.
Investment thesis
While a positive stance on Beiersdorf is rather consensual, the stock firmly ticks the GARP box: Consumer LFL should keep surprising, and we have double-digit EPS growth (FY23e/24e/25e).
Rating and target price
We maintain our Outperform rating; our target price remains unchanged at EUR140.
15 questions for management
You commented that your current assumption for the European market growth next year is +2-3%. Could you please share your thinking wrt. expectations for the global Consumer reference market growth next year? Is it fair to assume that you will target to outperform the market?