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Q324 sales and 15 questions for management
Beiersdorf AG (BEI:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
24 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Omanadze Mikheil MO | Stent Jeff JS | Queulvee Camille CQ -
Pages:
16 -
Summary of Q324 sales
Consumer LFL at +5.7% came in c.150bp below Visible Alpha (VA) consensus expectation of +7.2%, with the miss largely driven by La Prairie (LFL at -8.0% vs. VA consensus at +6.1%) and, to a lesser extent, by Nivea (LFL at +5.9% vs. VA consensus at +8.2%), while Derma was in line with expectations (LFL at +10.0% vs. VA consensus at +9.8%). FY outlook was reiterated with Beiersdorf commenting on expectations of ''strong performance overall in Q4''.
News
Beiersdorf sounded optimistic on the innovation (and renovation) pipeline for 2025; from a near-term perspective, comp base in Europe in Q4 should be easier than it was in Q3 - Beiersdorf repeated that not reaching towards the upper end of Consumer FY LFL outlook would be disappointing.
Earnings
We reduce our estimates by c.1% in FY24e and keep them broadly unchanged in FY25e/26e.
Investment thesis
Beiersdorf''s innovation pipeline should underpin Consumer LFL outperformance vs. the market. In addition, we see double-digit EPS growth in both FY24 and FY25, and view valuation as palatable.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Outperform rating and EUR149 target price.
15 questions for management
Visible Alpha consensus currently expects Consumer LFL of +6.3% in FY25. In your view, are there any meaningful building blocks that consensus does not take into account?