SZG offers attractive leverage to the ongoing record steel up-cycle with Sheet profitability largely de-risked through Q3 and an increasingly optimistic outlook for plate following years of pain. SZG''s leading energy exposure remains a unique headwind vs peers, though this too is beginning to inflect. While we see further upside risk to guidance, FCF generation remains lacklustre vs peers. Strong leverage to Strip Steel recovery SZG remains well positioned to benefit from the current up-cycle given its shorter-term contract structure than many peers, and the company''s Strip Steel business should see sequential margin expansion through Q2/Q3. The decision to restart SZG''s last idled blast furnace (600ktpa capacity) by Nov reflects weakening supply-side tightness forecast into H2, but in the currently undersupplied market and with peer outages nearing, the decision is justified. Interestingly, while SZG has in the past benefitted from significant raw material hedging gains, management flagged more neutral contribution at present as record iron ore is offset by coal weakness. Plate market coming back to life but Oil and Gas demand still poor After years of pain, plate is surging back to life led by a combination of recovering real demand, speculative pro-cyclical buying and an end to destocking, with earnings set to recover from Q2. However, SZG remains cautious on energy-related demand with large diameter pipe the lone product area with still weak demand, though a slightly improved outlook. For plate, we are hopeful that growth in wind power may emerge as a key structural demand driver in the coming decade. Decarbonisation in focus As carbon costs surge, SZG is uniquely well positioned with a large hedged position covering the majority of its carbon credit shortfall through 2030. SZG''s outgoing CEO notably talked down the benefits of a proposed carbon border tax given fear of retaliatory measures and a ''bureaucratic monster'' instead...