This content is only available within our institutional offering.
22 Oct 2024
Results Flash - One-offs drive significant FY24 guidance cut
Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Results Flash - One-offs drive significant FY24 guidance cut
What happened?
Salzgitter today pre-released Q3 operational results well below expectations and slashed its FY24 guidance. The miss and the cut are almost entirely driven by two one-offs totaling EUR 250m, explaining the market''s relatively muted reaction.
BNPP Exane View:
Timing is not a surprise given the company just published compiled consensus figures. Salzgitter follows Voestalpine''s warning last week, another German, auto-exposed steelmaker, with this large impairment, profit warning and new restructuring plan. However, adjusting for the two one-offs, operating performance comes roughly in-line with Q3/Q4 expectations. This is only of small comfort with spot German rebar and HRC margins in negative territory, and OEMs pushing for lower annual contracts (-EUR 200/t YoY). In our latest sector update (see below), we flagged significant downside risk into year-end and reiterated our Underperform rating.
Latest sector note: The longest downturn
. 3Q24: SZG expects 3Q24 EBITDA to reach EUR 88m, slightly below consensus of EUR 92m and above BNPPe of EUR 66m. No segmental breakdown was provided. EBT of -EUR 152m includes a EUR 130m impairment (Precision Tubes in the Steel Processing division). Adjusted EBT came in-line with consensus of -EUR 19m. We note that Aurubis Q3 contribution of EUR 38m came above expectations (EUR 25m).
. 4Q24: SZG cut its FY24 EBITDA guidance from EUR 400-500m previously to EUR 275-325m (versus cons. of EUR 446m). This implies Q4 ranging from negative EUR 47m to positive EUR 3m (versus cons. of EUR 120m). The FY24 EBT guidance is also slashed from breakeven to -EUR 275-325m, implying Q4 of -EUR 135-185m (versus consensus of -EUR 43m). Adjusting for the EUR 120m one-off in Q4, the adjusted EBT guidance comes in-line with consensus (below for adjusted EBITDA).
. Restructuring: SZG has initiated a new restructuring program (targeting the trading business) which would results in an additional one-off expense of EUR...