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12 Aug 2024
Results Flash - Processing under pressure, Q2 FCF below expectations
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Results Flash - Processing under pressure, Q2 FCF below expectations
What happened?
Salzgitter this morning reported full 2Q24 results in-line with the company''s pre-release a month ago, which came below BNPPe/consensus at the time (-18%). The guidance, which was cut last week, was also reiterated. We note that Q2 FCF also came below expectations.
BNPP Exane View:
With the guidance unchanged and Q2 results pre-released, the only new development was the divisional breakdown and the FCF performance. Positively, steel margins, whilst markedly below peers, came above expectations. But the plate business considerably underperformed even adjusted for the Q2 impairment. Net-net, the earning mix is perhaps less concerning that initially thought. But the cash performance disappointed while the outlook remains challenging. Salzgitter uniquely suffers from a more volatile product mix (plate/tube) and over-exposure to a weaker German market (~50% of group sales). Reiterate Underperform.
. PandL: Salzgitter had already pre-released Q2 EBITDA of EUR 107m (versus consensus at the time of EUR 130m) and EBT of -EUR 6m (EUR 21m). By division, we now learn that the miss came from the Steel Processing division, notably due to a EUR 20m impairment of the stainless tube division. Aurubis contribution of EUR 48m was particularly robust.
. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: Net debt ended the quarter at EUR 847m, above consensus of EUR 778m (BNPPe of EUR 843m). Capex came in-line, but a larger working capital build drove the miss. Management notes that the sale of Mannesmann Stainless Tubes should generate EUR 125m in cash in H2.
. Guidance: Salzgitter reiterated its new guidance. Two weeks ago, the steelmaker slashed its FY24 EBITDA guidance from EUR 550-625m previously to a much wider range of EUR 400-500m (versus cons. at the time of EUR 564m and BNPPe of EUR 484m). This implies a H2 average quarterly run-rate of ~EUR 83-133m (versus cons. of ~EUR 160m and BNPPe of EUR 117m). The EBT guidance was also cut from EUR 100-175m to breakeven...