What happened? Salzgitter just pre-released Q4 results with EBITDA coming well above expectations thanks to Aurubis valuation effects. The FY26 EBITDA guidance comes -25% below consensus. BNP Paribas View: The robust Q4 performance is likely to be overshadowed by the fact that it was largely driven by positive valuation effects at Aurubis. Instead, attention will focus on the preliminary yearly guidance, which falls short of consensus expectations and our own estimates. Management''s initial outlook, formulated prior to the introduction of new import quotas and based on a modest market rebound, appears very cautious. Notably, the sales guidance implies a conservative increase in both price and volume. Despite this, we remain confident in a strong earnings recovery for the sector this year, driven by rising EU steel prices and growing volumes following the implementation of CBAM and new safeguard measures. It''s worth noting that the German steelmaker has a history of issuing conservative guidance, only to exceed it with full-year results. We see our base case playing out for the EU carbon steel sector and reiterate our Outperform rating for Salzgitter. Key takeaways: . 4Q25: SZG expects 4Q25 EBITDA to reach EUR 152m, well above consensus of EUR 111m (BNPPe of EUR 96m), triggering the pre-release. Q4 group EBT of EUR 45m also significantly beat consensus of EUR 5m. No segmental breakdown was provided, but we note that Aurubis contribution (EBT) of EUR 93m surpassed BNPPe of EUR 21m. Higher valuation effects from fluctuations in metal prices boosted Aurubis performance (offset by EUR 30m loss from the exchangeable bond). . FY26: SZG released its first EBITDA guidance for 2026 at EUR 500-600m (-25% versus cons. of ~EUR 735m and well below BNPPe of EUR 1.1b). The FY25 EBT guidance also comes below expectations at EUR 75-175m (versus cons. of EUR 300m). . Market: ''The government''s planned investment and infrastructure programs have not yet resulted...