What happened? Salzgitter yesterday pre-released Q4 results with EBITDA coming in surprisingly well above expectations on a strong Aurubis contribution. The FY25 guidance should bring downside risk to consensus. BNPP Exane View: It took us some time to decipher the pre-release. The Q4 EBITDA beat is surprising and cannot solely be explained by the strong (and also surprising) Aurubis contribution. It would make more sense if some of the Q4 restructuring expenses of EUR 128m had ultimately been booked below the EBITDA line. It could also simply imply better operational performance or year-end positive accounting effects. This could very well be the case as a new impairment in Q4 ought to have dragged Q4 results lower. The steelmaker did not provide any update on the non-binding offer, which was reportedly submitted by GP Gunter Papenburg (its second largest shareholder) and TSR in late January. This will be a key focus for the upcoming earnings call (March 21st) as shares have rallied hard on the news. We are a bit surprised by the market reaction given the 25% gap between the mid-point of the FY25 EBITDA guidance and consensus. We had previously flagged downside risk (see here). We also remain prudent on the MandA upside. Reiterate Underperform. . 4Q24: SZG expects 4Q24 EBITDA to reach EUR 124m, well above consensus of -EUR 4m and BNPPe of -EUR 41m, triggering the pre-release. No segmental breakdown was provided but we note that Aurubis contribution (EBT) of EUR 76m surpassed BNPPe of EUR 18m. Q4 group EBT of -EUR 155m is roughly in-line with BNPPe but below consensus of -EUR 122m. A new EUR 129m impairment was booked in Q4. . Restructuring: As expected, SZG recorded a one-off restructuring expense of EUR 128m in Q4, only slightly higher than the EUR 120m previously communicated. . FY25: SZG provided FY25 EBITDA guidance of EUR 350-550m (closer to BNPPe of EUR 495m than cons. of EUR 566m). The FY25 EBT guidance stands at EUR -100-100m...