Salzgitter is one of the worst performers in our coverage so far this year (-20% YTD). The steelmaker has particularly suffered from its leading exposure to both declining spot HRC margins and a still-sluggish German economy (~50% of group sales). But is it time to revisit the story? We''ve run the numbers and keep our Underperform rating. The lack of visibility, highlighted by the painful guidance cut, neutralises the value argument in our view. The FCF outlook also remains problematic. The steel businesses will fail to make a profit this year; we cut FY24 EBITDA by 30% Two months ago, management banked on a notable surge in demand and a strong recovery in H2. This is no longer the case, with shipments now expected to fall this year and capacity being curtailed. With Trading guided around breakeven, Steel Production margins down YoY and Steel Processing only recovering in H2, the cut to our FY24 forecasts is significant (-30%). We now forecast FY24 EBITDA of EUR565m, at the bottom of the guidance and -20% below unadjusted consensus. Capex may be lower than expected in FY24 but net debt to triple by 2025 as green steel nears If the operating outlook has deteriorated, communication around capital allocation also remains troublesome. Back in Q4, we thought we had finally obtained some visibility on the capex guidance. But the new CFO is now revising investment plans while SALCOS is also facing delays. In order to preserve the initial decarbonisation timeline, however, there is limited room to cut. We expect net capex to average ~EUR0.8bn over the next two years, pushing net debt towards the EUR1.0bn mark. Valuation: we cut our TP to EUR20/sh on the back of lower EBITDA/FCF If there is no pricing/margin recovery in H2, what is left to play for? The FCF pressure is a clear drag on valuation, despite Salzgitter''s success in securing subsidies. And as opposed to peers, the steelmaker suffers from a more volatile product mix (plate/tube) and overexposure...