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07 Nov 2022
A decent print and a wake-up call

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A decent print and a wake-up call
GEA Group Aktiengesellschaft (G1A:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
07 Nov 2022 -
Author:
Growe Sebastian SGR | Schachel Ingo IS -
Pages:
15 -
Q3 execution beating consensus by 8% at EBITDA level, while orders were only in line
Q3 orders of EUR 1.37bn were only in line with consensus (b:b at 1.01x), yet the high margin SFT segment fell 6% short of consensus. On the contrary, execution was strong with decent sales (4% ahead) and EBITDA (8% above) benefitting from volume and pricing tailwinds with all segments contributing to the beat and showing a sequential margin improvement, and SFT defending the margin at 25%. FCF came in at EUR 74m thanks to decent operating profit mitigating another sequential NWC built-up (quota to sales: 9% vs. 5% at YE21). GEA now sees EBITDA at the upper bound of the EUR 630-690m corridor (consensus: EUR 679m | LTM Q3: EUR 684m).
Key takes from the call - solid message plus one-wake-up call
To start from the back, the call has served as a wake-up call, in the sense that (parts of) the market has been made aware that the EBITDA target (narrowed to upper bound of EUR 630-690m) is ex FX, which should add EUR c.25-30m vs. pre Q3-consensus at EUR 678m, i.e. pointing to 5-6% upside risk. Other than that, we found the call solid: NWC is likely to have peaked, c. 2-3% from earlier price hikes should spill over to FY23, and service should continue outgrowing OE, while the Q4 order guide of EUR 1.3bn and commentary on still tight supply chains were rather neutral.
We have lifted our adj. EBITDA 2023/24e by 6% for a similar upside to consensus
A stronger than expected Q3 2022 results regarding execution and encouraging statements around price quality and strength in service, we have lifted our adj. EBITDA 2023/24 by 6% putting us ahead of consensus for a similar magnitude, which is likely to follow us in the coming days.
Unchanged TP given rising interest rates, no short-term catalyst beyond earnings upgrades
Despite our forecast hike we leave our TP at EUR 40 now implying 12.4x EV/EBIT 2023e, which is in line with the historical 1Y FWD average. While before we had...