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  • 08 Nov 2023

A double floor


GEA Group Aktiengesellschaft (G1A:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Growe Sebastian SGR

    • 15 pages


 

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A double floor


GEA Group Aktiengesellschaft (G1A:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 08 Nov 2023
  • Author: Growe Sebastian SGR
  • Pages: 15
  • BNP Paribas Exane


GEA released mixed Q3 results (orders: 5% miss, adj. EBITDA: in line, strong FCF) and announced a EUR 400m share buyback program (c.7% of MCap) plus it will cancel c. EUR 300m of treasury shares. YTD, GEA is down 14% on fears of a potential rollover in orders vis-a-vis downside risks to consensus; in fact, the business has held up well despite material FX headwinds. As downside risks to consensus look limited, while the shares have derated by c. 20% and now trade at 10x EV/EBITA 24e, a c. 20% discount to its LT 1FW multiple, we upgrade to O/P; our TP is unchanged at EUR 41. Key takes from the call - ''very good pipeline'' supports growth in FY24 at improving margin We acknowledge that longer decision-making and c. EUR 0.1bn of FX headwinds resulted in orders of only EUR 1.25bn, which was driven by all divisions excl. HRT for a b:b of 0.9x (LTM b:b at 1.04x); this appears to have marked the trough though based on mgmt. commentary on the call with the pipeline said to be ''very good''. What is more, mgmt. pointed to ''good growth'' (pre-Q3 VA cons: 2%) backing up that pipeline and underlining the resilience related to Service (LTM Q3: 36%, up 1pp y/y). Last but not least, the CEO pointed to a further margin expansion in his closing remarks (cons: +10bp). Shares worth EUR 700m or 11% of MCap to be cancelled via new and prior buyback program GEA issued a new EUR 400m share buyback program (11/2023-early 2025) with the first tranche of EUR 150m about to start in November and to be completed within six months. In wake of market fears of a potential slump in the business, this sends a strong signal with the CEO convinced of ''GEA''s operational strength and [...] our Mission 26 growth strategy'' looking at 4-6% organic sales growth in 21-26, an adj. EBITDA margin 15% by 2026 vs. 14.5% per LTM Q3 and ROCE 30%. Model update - minor changes for unchanged FCF estimates suggesting c.7% yield in 24e We have reflected slightly longer than previously assumed fixing...

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