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  • 02 Oct 2024

CMD 24 and 2030 targets - 1st take


GEA Group Aktiengesellschaft (G1A:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Growe Sebastian SGR

    • 9 pages


 

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CMD 24 and 2030 targets - 1st take


GEA Group Aktiengesellschaft (G1A:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 02 Oct 2024
  • Author: Growe Sebastian SGR
  • Pages: 9
  • BNP Paribas Exane


What happened? GEA has just published its new 2030 targets ahead of its CMD in Amsterdam (mgmt presentations) / Rotterdam (Innocent factory tour) that is taking place today after a dinner with mgmt last night. In short, the company is shooting for 5% organic sales CAGR (VA consensus 25-27e: 3.6%), a 17-19% adj. EBITDA margin (VA 26/27e: 15.5%/15.3%), a ROCE of 45% and OpFCF of EUR 4bn in 2024-30 for an average of c. EUR 570m p.a. (VA 25-27e: EUR 515m). Top-line growth: Among the key growth drivers one can find: 1) digitalization and AI with the 2030 target looking at 35k connected machines vs. 7k today with related revenues from digitalization expected to rise to EUR 200m vs. EUR 67m in 2023 (CAGR: ~20%); 2) service should continue growing at a ~6% CAGR vs. ~4% GEA in the product / project business for a share of 40% by 2030 vs. today''s 38%; 3) New Food should contribute order intake of EUR 400m in 2030 with today''s contribution a far cry from that at around EUR 0.1bn. Adj. EBITDA: Beyond yet unquantified tailwinds from operating leverage, GEA points to 2 cost related EBITDA levers: 1) the harmonization and process optimization in the areas of production, purchasing and supply chain management - we understand this will not least include a further consolidation of the manufacturing footprint from currently 43 sites to a low/er 30s number - should yield a ''net contribution to EBITDA'' of EUR 120m by 2030; 2) a sizable reduction in GandA expenses to a quota of 10% of sales (2023: 11.4%) for an ''improvement potential of EUR 100m p.a. by 2030'', which should not least be supported by the global harmonization of ERP systems via the so-called Transform360 program. ROCE / FCF: Contrary to the top-line and margin levers, GEA has not provided any further details around the 45% ROCE target and/or cumulative FCF ambition of EUR 4bn through 2030, especially with regard to the expected NWC trajectory and/or capex spent, namely in the area of the ERP...

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