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02 Oct 2024
CMD 24 - self-help plus a wild card

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CMD 24 - self-help plus a wild card
GEA Group Aktiengesellschaft (G1A:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
02 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Growe Sebastian SGR -
Pages:
16 -
GEA hosted a hybrid CMD in the Netherlands featuring an innocent brand factory tour. While 2030 targets look ambitious at first glance, we think the Street is likely to edge higher on margins due to confidence in the service and COGS reduction opportunity; the 5% sales CAGR ambition remains more of a show-me case given a lacklustre macro environment. However, the latter remains a wild card following increased localisation that better exploits the opportunity in APAC, and our new forecasts sit c. 10% above VA EBIT 26e. Our new TP of EUR50 implies DD upside; we reiterate O/P.
New financial framework suggests double-digit upside to consensus at first glance
After reaching its Mission 26 targets two years earlier than expected, GEA is now shooting for 5% organic sales CAGR (VA consensus 25-27e: 3.6%), a 17-19% reported (changed vs. previous focus on adjusted values) EBITDA margin (VA 26/27e: 15.5%/15.3%), a ROCE of 45% and OpFCF of EUR4bn in 2024-30 for an average of c. EUR570m p.a. (VA 25-27e: EUR 515m).
Key takes from presentations and QandA - a mixed bag overall, especially for OE sales growth
We acknowledge that GEA has increasingly prepared its portfolio for a pick-up in OE growth e.g. via pushing for new products (cf. AdBetter, New Food) and greater digitization; yet, the jury is still out in regards to the take-up rate, not least as 2021-24 has only been driven by pricing. For Service, we find the 6% growth ambition more credible, in part because running existing machines longer drives ad hoc service demand and a pick-up in use cases should support the goal of connecting more machines. As footprint measures and the ERP overhaul appear to be rather backend-loaded, that might equally apply to reaching the 2030 EBITDA margin target of 17-19%
Reiterate O/P, new TP is EUR50 - likely market pushback plus cash return story still attractive
We slightly hike our sales estimates (solely driven by SFT and FHT) and give GEA credit for additional COGS...