We are lowering our full-year estimates ahead of GEA''s Q2 results release on 10 August, reflecting weaker macro data and stronger-than-expected FX headwinds. As we expect a spill-over to FY24 and beyond, we reduce our EBITA 2023-25e by 7%, prompting our new EUR41 target. Despite single digit downside risk to consensus, valuation looks supportive with our new forecasts implying 11.6x and 10.9x EV/EBITA 23/24e. Irrespective of envisaged MandA appetite, the EUR274m net cash per Q1 and structurally decent cash generation could allow a new share buyback to lend further support. Key take-aways from our pre-close call with IR - guidance parameters confirmed IR at GEA conveyed an overall constructive message: 1) demand: we understand that demand has normalised versus the record level in Q1 that benefitted from very strong base and mid-sized and large orders, with only limited FX headwinds (3-4% headwind anticipated in Q2 vs. (1.5)% in the March-quarter); 2) sales: organic growth should reach the 8% target as guided for the full-year of FY23, yet partly offset by FX; 3) EBITDA: after a 120bp margin expansion y/y in Q1, the combination of higher input cost inflation and negative translation effects should prevent an equally strong margin improvement in the June-quarter, while directionally supporting FY23 targets. Thoughts around FY23 guidance - consensus appears to be leaning to the optimistic side GEA raised FY23 guidance with Q1 results, now shooting for organic sales growth of 8% vs. 5% (consensus: 9%) and the upper part of the FX-adjusted adj. EBITDA target corridor of EUR730-790m, with the margin seen at 14.0% in FY23 (consensus: EUR795m / 14.2%), implying a range of EUR ~760-790m when applying 8-10% organic growth, (2-3)% from FX and (0.5)% from scope. Model update for a 7% EBITA 23-25e cut prompts new EUR41 TP - reiterate Neutral Factoring in higher-than-expected FX headwinds and considering that our earlier volume forecasts had moved to...