What happened?
Q4 orders/ sales/ adj. EBITDA/ EPS were +16%/ +3%/ +2%/ -36% vs. BBG; EPS miss on higher charges, DandA and NFR.
Guidance for FY25 was introduced - all guidance parameters for FY24 were achieved:
. Sales: EUR 5.48-5.64bn (BBG: EUR 5.5bn | LTM Q4: EUR 5.42bn); OSG target: 1-4% (BBG: 3.2%)
. Adj. EBITDA: EUR 850-900m (BBG: EUR 873m | LTM Q4: EUR 837m); margin target: 15.6-16.0% (BBG: 15.7%)
. ROCE: 30-35% (BBG: ND | LTM 33.8%) | Dividend proposal at EUR 1.15 (+15% y/y) for a 50% payout
BNPP Exane View:
After Krones'' solid earnings print and FY25 guidance on 20 Feb. GEA is the next FandB equipment and solutions provider to report Q4 results, which are above expectations. While the print and FY25 targets do not call for any meaningful changes to Street PandL/CF estimates for 25ff, BBG cons. is still shy of the constructive 2030 framework as presented at the CMD. Given structurally improved profitability vis-a-vis cash generation, valuation is still reasonable, we think at ~13x and 17x EV/EBITA and P/E 26e, bolstered by mgmt.''s proven track record and focus on shareholder value (cf. buyback program).
Order intake reached EUR 1.60bn (+16% vs. BBG), up 27% y/y (org.: +29%! | all divisions ex HRT were up y/y); LPT the key driver thx to large orders totalling EUR 230m, a new record, besides a strong base biz, but also SFT and FHT with meaningful beats vs. Street and growth for a Q4/LTM b:b of 1.06x/1.02x); backlog: EUR 3.13bn (up EUR 10m y/y).
Execution: 1) OSG growth was 9% y/y for sales of EUR 1.51bn (+3% vs. BBG) led by SFT/HRT; LTM SE share: 38.9% (+380bp y/y); 2) Adj. EBITDA at EUR 239m / margin: 15.9% (+2%/ -10bp vs. BBG); the abs. beat was broad-based ex FHT (on a 3% sales miss mainly), most pronounced at SFT/HRT (+13%/+22% vs BBG), held back by higher overhead costs; 3) Q4/FY FCF at EUR 355m/505m was again decent (~150%/60% vs. adj. EBITDA in Q4/FY) on good op. profit / seasonal NWC relief (down EUR 167m q/q) for a quota of only 6% at YE24 vs....
