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11 Aug 2022
Solid performance, but largely priced in

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Solid performance, but largely priced in
GEA Group Aktiengesellschaft (G1A:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
11 Aug 2022 -
Author:
Growe Sebastian SGR | Schachel Ingo IS -
Pages:
14 -
Q2 results beat expectations on all lines, despite supply chain related headwinds at FHT
GEA reported decent Q2 results with orders (+8% y/y) beating consensus by 3%, driven by all segments, and adj. EBITDA surpassing expectations by 6% despite supply chain related headwinds impacting FHT, not least as YTD price hikes of 5-6% drove above-proportionate growth in the high-margin service business (+13% vs. +9% in OE). The increase in semi-finished goods at FHT also affected FCF of EUR11m, which was held back by a EUR92m NWC build-up q/q, with the quota up 180bp q/q at 7.9%.
We rate the call constructive (if not bullish), implying MSD upside risk to consensus
The key positives from the call are: 1) orders are seen about stable both y/y and q/q as per the indicated EUR1.3-1.4bn Q3 trading update, 2) Q2 suffered from supply chain issues, mainly hitting FHT, i.e. u/l EBITDA was about EUR5m better, 3) GEA seeing shortages in electronic components easing implying good (better) execution in H2, and 4) FX tailwinds (EUR10m tailwind to H1 EBITDA) to continue, which are not included in the EUR630-690m EBITDA target (LTM Q2: EUR656m).
We have only fine-tuned our estimates, reflecting better volumes, yet also higher DandA
While volumes have been stronger than expected during FY22 YTD (for both orders and revenues), DandA has increased faster than anticipated, too. We increase our sales 2023-25e by 3%, yet higher DandA charges result in unchanged EBIT estimates overall for the period 2023-25.
Unchanged TP of EUR40 - upside risk to consensus widely reflected in the price
We continue to value GEA based on ~13.5x EV/EBIT 2023e, a c. 10% premium to the historical 1Y FWD multiple of 12x, which gives us our unchanged TP of EUR40. While we still see ~5% upside risk to consensus for FY22, which is also spilling over to outer years, we do not have the impression that GEA is currently running ahead of its 2026 ambition for a 15% EBITDA margin (consensus 2025e: ~14%). In...