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07 Mar 2023
What''s left beyond technical upgrades?

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What''s left beyond technical upgrades?
GEA Group Aktiengesellschaft (G1A:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
07 Mar 2023 -
Author:
Growe Sebastian SGR | Schachel Ingo IS -
Pages:
14 -
After the easy part is behind - calling the shares higher on FY23 guidance in anticipation of a too conservative consensus; in fact, our new EBITDA 2023-26e sits 9% above the Street - the question is what to do from here. While GEA does not look expensive at 13x/12x EV/EBITA 2023/24e, it does not screen as particularly cheap either and our EBITDA 23e of EUR814m is already above the EUR730-790m target corridor for this year. To sum up: beyond tailwinds from technical upgrades the story appears somewhat exhausted here, so we reiterate Neutral with a new TP of EUR44.
Key takeaways from the call - 2023 EBITDA target range apparently conservative
GEA telegraphed a bullish message for orders (Q1: EUR1.5bn | FY23 b:b at 1x, i.e. implying EUR5.7bn) and EBITDA upon strong visibility and decent backlog pricing plus high confidence in passing on expected FY23 cost inflation to customers. Thus, even the upper end of the EBITDA range looks conservative (consensus: EUR755m). On the contrary, FCF 23e might be a touch below consensus'' EUR388m given a temporary spike in capex but it should bounce back as of FY24.
Model changes - 3% hike to EBITDA 23-26e reflects faster execution and better pricing power
While our estimates had been above consensus already prior to today''s release, the print and related commentary on the call further supported our optimistic view. Our slightly altered forecasts (sales / EBITDA 23-26 is up 1%/3%) mirrors better execution in the plant engineering activities and tailwinds from price/mix, while we consider FCF weakness temporary (2023e: -9% / 2024-26e: +6%).
Maintain Neutral recommendation with a new EUR44 target - the easy money has been made
As compelling as GEA looks in light of a still rather moderate valuation and a favourable upgrade cycle, which is likely to continue beyond the actual FY22 release as GEA has meanwhile built a track record of under-promising / over-delivering, we struggle to chase the shares here. With...