Higher than expected costs, driven by H2 on-field recovery, suggest that our forecast of broadly maintained pre-transfer EBITDA in the year just ended may now be met only thanks to a Champions League revenue loss insurance claim (our estimate €10m), for which we had not previously accounted. However, we are encouraged by continuing top-line buoyancy and the prospect of underlying profit resilience in FY16 despite no Champions League. Initial reaction to new coach Thomas Tuchel seems very positive, eg key players Gündogan and Hummels deciding to stay.
